Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Kings, while the market favors Grizzlies (56%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (75%) · Kings at 44¢ · $810 held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Kings
4
Kings 75%
$810.45
-$0.38
43.9¢ → 44¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidKings at 44%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Grizzlies 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Kingsavg 44¢ | $485.23 | $485.23 | -$0 | 68% 3515-1686 (5201) |
 VeryLucky888 | Grizzliesavg 56.1¢ | $296.48 | $296.19 | -$0.29 | 58% 31642-22900 (54542) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Kingsavg 43¢ | $15.48 | $15.84 | +$0.36 | 58% 1460-1073 (2533) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Kingsavg 43¢ | $12.9 | $13.2 | -$0.45 | 54% 13809-11592 (25401) |
Invested
$485.23
Value
$485.23
PnL
-$0
Record
68%
3515-1686 (5201)
VeryLucky888Invested
$296.48
Value
$296.19
PnL
-$0.29
Record
58%
31642-22900 (54542)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$15.48
Value
$15.84
PnL
+$0.36
Record
58%
1460-1073 (2533)
Invested
$12.9
Value
$13.2
PnL
-$0.45
Record
54%
13809-11592 (25401)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.