Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (60%) · Grizzlies at 51¢ · $12K held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Grizzlies
5
Grizzlies 60%
1 arb excluded
$11.5K
$109.25
51.5¢ → 50.5¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidGrizzlies at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Grizzliesavg 51.2¢ | $6.9K | $7.2K | +$237.91 | 55% 12111-9992 (22103) |
PP ppku6298CTR | Kingsavg 49¢ | $3.3K | $3.1K | -$131.37 | 41% 53-76 (129) |
 VeryLucky888 | Grizzliesavg 52.8¢ | $794.62 | $797.16 | +$2.54 | 58% 31642-22900 (54542) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Grizzliesavg 53¢ | $349.27 | $349.27 | -$0 | 69% 4259-1919 (6178) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Grizzliesavg 53.2¢ | $52.9 | $53.05 | +$0.15 | 54% 13809-11592 (25401) |
| └ Grizzlies leg | Grizzliesavg 53.2¢ | $32.46 | $32.33 | -$0.13 | |
| └ Kings leg | Kingsavg 46.4¢ | $20.44 | $20.72 | +$0.28 | |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Kingsavg 46¢ | $15.87 | $16.22 | +$0.17 | 58% 1460-1073 (2533) |
Invested
$6,916.41
Value
$7.2K
PnL
+$237.91
Record
55%
12111-9992 (22103)
Invested
$3,261.62
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$131.37
Record
41%
53-76 (129)
VeryLucky888Invested
$794.62
Value
$797.16
PnL
+$2.54
Record
58%
31642-22900 (54542)
Invested
$349.27
Value
$349.27
PnL
-$0
Record
69%
4259-1919 (6178)
Invested
$52.9
Value
$53.05
PnL
+$0.15
Record
54%
13809-11592 (25401)
Both legs:
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$15.87
Value
$16.22
PnL
+$0.17
Record
58%
1460-1073 (2533)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.