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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BreakTheBank | ndb1 | pIebe | UpTheBlues | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (581–722, n=1303) | 63% (993–578, n=1571) | 70% (715–305, n=1020) | 50% (20622–20404, n=41026) |
| Consensus PnL | $7.3M | $4.8M | $1.1M | $3.1M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #3 | PM monthly #94 | PM monthly #199 + pinned | PM monthly #8 |
| Sides with the consensus | 88% (22 of 25 open) | 71% (55 of 78 open) | 79% (128 of 163 open) | 70% (31 of 44 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| ||
| Weakest topic | — | NFL −9 pts, n=144 | Mentions −13 pts, n=20 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 97% of 586 at avg 53¢, ROI +40% | 64% of 1398 at avg 64¢, ROI +2% | 71% of 944 at avg 70¢, ROI +3% | 100% of 39731 at avg 67¢, ROI +36% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 10% (won 82% of 60) | 13% (won 15% of 186) | 22% (won 6% of 204) | 7% (won 99% of 2699) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 35% (won 98% of 206) | 19% (won 39% of 267) | 6% (won 47% of 55) | 20% (won 100% of 7974) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 35% (won 100% of 204) | 23% (won 58% of 326) | 6% (won 52% of 56) | 22% (won 100% of 8588) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 20% (won 100% of 116) | 44% (won 94% of 619) | 67% (won 96% of 629) | 52% (won 100% of 20470) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | BreakTheBank | ndb1 | pIebe | UpTheBlues |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $37K | — | Yes $22K | — |
| Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $22K | — | No $199 | — |
| Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? same side · consensus No | No $407K | No $335K | — | — |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? same side · consensus No | — | No $54K | No $10 | — |