Entertainment: what top Polymarket traders hold
Film, music, awards and TV. These are the Entertainment markets on Polymarket in which at least five of the top traders we track hold a position, with the side most of them hold (the consensus), what share of them hold it and the market's own price for that side.
A consensus is a head count of who holds what, not a probability, and following it did not pay on average in our backtests — see how it works.
- Live consensus markets
- 61
- Recently settled, consensus right
- 7 of 9
- Prices as of
- Oct 25, 07:19 UTC
Live Entertainment consensus markets (61)
- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?Traders hold Yes 85%17 of 20 tradersMarket price 93¢$64K held
- No one announced as next James Bond?Traders hold No 56%10 of 18 tradersMarket price 77¢$106K held
- Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Traders hold No 39%7 of 18 tradersMarket price 44¢$44K heldagainst the market price
- Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?Traders hold No 63%10 of 17 tradersMarket price 62¢$35K held
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?Traders hold No 73%11 of 15 tradersMarket price 100¢$62K held
- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Traders hold Yes 60%9 of 15 tradersMarket price 42¢$20K heldagainst the market price
- Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%13 of 13 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$9 heldagainst the market price
- New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? Traders hold No 91%10 of 11 tradersMarket price 98¢$231K held
- Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?Traders hold No 78%7 of 9 tradersMarket price 94¢$50K held
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?Traders hold No 78%7 of 9 tradersMarket price 97¢$44K held
- Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?Traders hold Yes 63%5 of 8 tradersMarket price 90¢$24K held
- Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Traders hold No 63%5 of 8 tradersMarket price 56¢$20K held
- Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?Traders hold Yes 75%6 of 8 tradersMarket price 84¢$17K held
- Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?Traders hold No 88%7 of 8 tradersMarket price 90¢$5K held
- Will Avengers: Doomsday win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Traders hold Yes 100%8 of 8 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$1 heldagainst the market price
- Will Fatherland win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Traders hold Yes 100%8 of 8 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$1 heldagainst the market price
- Will Clarissa win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Traders hold Yes 100%8 of 8 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$1 heldagainst the market price
- Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Traders hold Yes 86%6 of 7 tradersMarket price 43¢$8K heldagainst the market price
- Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least $21M?Traders hold No 86%6 of 7 tradersMarket price 99¢$6K held
- Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?Traders hold No 29%2 of 7 tradersMarket price 84¢$3K held
- Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%7 of 7 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$2 heldagainst the market price
- Will All of a Sudden win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Traders hold Yes 100%7 of 7 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$2 heldagainst the market price
- Will Saturn Return win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Traders hold Yes 100%7 of 7 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$2 heldagainst the market price
- Will "Elsinore" win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Traders hold Yes 100%7 of 7 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$1 heldagainst the market price
- Will Michael win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Traders hold Yes 100%7 of 7 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$1 heldagainst the market price
- Will Disclosure Day win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Traders hold Yes 100%7 of 7 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$1 heldagainst the market price
- Will The Adventures of Cliff Booth win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Traders hold Yes 100%7 of 7 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$0 heldagainst the market price
- Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m?Traders hold Yes 100%6 of 6 tradersMarket price 95¢$4K held
- Will anyone insult Donald Trump during the 2026 Emmy Awards?Traders hold Yes 67%4 of 6 tradersMarket price 7.0¢$367 heldagainst the market price
- Will Stateside – PinkPantheress & Zara Larsson be the #2 song for 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%6 of 6 tradersMarket price 0.3¢$2 heldagainst the market price
- Will Dai Dai – Shakira & Burna Boy be the top song for 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%6 of 6 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$1 heldagainst the market price
- Will hate that i made you love me – Ariana Grande be the top song for 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%6 of 6 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$1 heldagainst the market price
- Will Die With A Smile – Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars be the top song for 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%6 of 6 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$1 heldagainst the market price
- Will Toy Story 5 have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%6 of 6 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$0 heldagainst the market price
- Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%6 of 6 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$0 heldagainst the market price
- Will Die With A Smile – Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars be the #2 song for 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%6 of 6 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$0 heldagainst the market price
- Will Dai Dai – Shakira & Burna Boy be the #2 song for 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%6 of 6 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$0 heldagainst the market price
- Will Risk It All – Bruno Mars be the #2 song for 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%6 of 6 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$0 heldagainst the market price
- Will "stupid song – Olivia Rodrigo" be the #2 song for 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%6 of 6 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$0 heldagainst the market price
- Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song for 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%6 of 6 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$0 heldagainst the market price
- Will APT. – ROSÉ & Bruno Mars be the #2 song for 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%6 of 6 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$0 heldagainst the market price
- Will Drop Dead – Olivia Rodrigo be the #2 song for 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%6 of 6 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$0 heldagainst the market price
- Will hate that i made you love me – Ariana Grande be the #2 song for 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%6 of 6 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$0 heldagainst the market price
- GTA VI released by October 31?Traders hold No 100%5 of 5 tradersMarket price 100¢$47K held
- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?Traders hold No 40%2 of 5 tradersMarket price 88¢$12K held
- Will "Street Fighter" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between $8M and $11M?Traders hold Yes 60%3 of 5 tradersMarket price 97¢$4K held
- Will "Wildwood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 14m?Traders hold Yes 75%3 of 5 tradersMarket price 16¢$2K heldagainst the market price
- Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027?Traders hold No 80%4 of 5 tradersMarket price 83¢$2K held
- Will Ezra Frech win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35?Traders hold Yes 60%3 of 5 tradersMarket price 58¢$2K held
- Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 22m?Traders hold No 40%2 of 5 tradersMarket price 100¢$697 held
- Will Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%5 of 5 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$5 heldagainst the market price
- Will Swim – BTS be the #2 song for 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%5 of 5 tradersMarket price 0.3¢$2 heldagainst the market price
- Will Billie Jean – Michael Jackson be the #2 song for 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%5 of 5 tradersMarket price 0.3¢$2 heldagainst the market price
- Will Stateside – PinkPantheress & Zara Larsson be the top song for 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%5 of 5 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$0 heldagainst the market price
- Will APT. – ROSÉ & Bruno Mars be the top song for 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%5 of 5 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$0 heldagainst the market price
- Will Billie Jean – Michael Jackson be the top song for 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%5 of 5 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$0 heldagainst the market price
- Will "stupid song – Olivia Rodrigo" be the top song for 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%5 of 5 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$0 heldagainst the market price
- Will Risk It All – Bruno Mars be the top song for 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%5 of 5 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$0 heldagainst the market price
- Will Drop Dead – Olivia Rodrigo be the top song for 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%5 of 5 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$0 heldagainst the market price
- Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the top song for 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%5 of 5 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$0 heldagainst the market price
- Will Dune: Messiah have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%5 of 5 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$0 heldagainst the market price
Top traders in Entertainment
Tracked traders with 10 or more settled Entertainment consensus markets whose side won more often than its entry price implied, ranked by how much (on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short lucky run does not rank first). These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero.
- 1.Medo3D+34 ptsside won 99% of 89 · avg entry 65¢ · ROI +32%
- 2.RLWG+29 ptsside won 68% of 144 · avg entry 39¢ · ROI +1%
- 3.PROBABILITYTRADER+28 ptsside won 81% of 153 · avg entry 53¢ · ROI −1%
- 4.bronzer6+40 ptsside won 90% of 20 · avg entry 50¢ · ROI +37%
- 5.Syrrok+40 ptsside won 100% of 15 · avg entry 60¢ · ROI +25%
- 6.troim+33 ptsside won 83% of 40 · avg entry 50¢ · ROI +31%
- 7.JAMJAMJAM4+27 ptsside won 100% of 28 · avg entry 73¢ · ROI +26%
- 8.Scotty155+16 ptsside won 24% of 2265 · avg entry 9¢ · ROI +12%
- 9.TheImpasse+34 ptsside won 76% of 21 · avg entry 43¢ · ROI +25%
- 10.SchruteBucks+15 ptsside won 89% of 228 · avg entry 74¢ · ROI +12%
Recently settled Entertainment markets
What the tracked traders held when each market settled, and how it came out. A handful of markets says little about the next one.
- Will Armenia win Junior Eurovision 2026?Result: YesTraders held Yes 80%consensus was right
- Will France win Junior Eurovision 2026?Result: NoTraders held No 40%consensus was right
- Will Georgia win Junior Eurovision 2026?Result: NoTraders held Yes 60%consensus was wrong
- Will Poland win Junior Eurovision 2026?Result: NoTraders held Yes 60%consensus was wrong
- Will North Macedonia win Junior Eurovision 2026?Result: NoTraders held No 40%consensus was right
- Will Italy win Junior Eurovision 2026?Result: NoTraders held No 40%consensus was right
- Will San Marino win Junior Eurovision 2026?Result: NoTraders held No 40%consensus was right
- Will Portugal win Junior Eurovision 2026?Result: NoTraders held No 40%consensus was right
- Will Montenegro win Junior Eurovision 2026?Result: NoTraders held No 40%consensus was right
Holders update as the tracked traders trade, and prices refresh about once a minute. Only wallets with a position of at least 1 share count as holders; the side is the one with the most money behind it among holders with $100 or more in the market. PolyConsensus is not affiliated with Polymarket and this is not investment advice. More: all topics, the trader leaderboard, large trades.