Known as morito181 since Nov 6 2026 · Previously known as: donube (Nov 5 – Nov 6 2026), morito181 (Nov 3 – Nov 5 2026), tetrase (Oct 22 – Nov 2 2026), ED99999 (Oct 3 2026)
Consensus PnL $1.1M · win rate 70% (712–304, n=1016) · PM monthly #194 · holds 165 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$1.1M
Record
712W / 304L
Win Rate
70.0%
of 1016 settled
Batting Avg
65.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#497
Source
PM monthly #194 + pinned
Record (90 d)
249/306 · 81%
Trades
105,572
Markets
1,695
Volume
$27.9M
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Top consensus positions
165 in listed consensus markets · 132 of 165 on the consensus side (80%)- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $69K · now 79¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (63% of 119)
- Trump out as President before 2027?No $57K · now 97¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (88% of 57)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $53K · now 89¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (83% of 128)
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No $53K · now 98¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (84% of 38)
- Plague pandemic in 2026?No $41K · now 99¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (100% of 9)
- US recession by end of 2026?No $39K · now 96¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (90% of 31)
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?No $37K · now 97¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (65% of 27)
- Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes $30K · now 92¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (65% of 70)
Specialties
941 settled consensus markets · held side won 71% at an average entry of 70¢- Politics
+3 pts
side won 88% of 72 · avg entry 84¢
ROI +4%
- Entertainment
+7 pts
side won 67% of 51 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +2%
- Elections
+4 pts
side won 58% of 74 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +5%
Weakest: Mentions — held side won 45% of 20 at an average 58¢ entry (−13 pts against the price), ROI −4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 22%(won 6% of 204)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 48% of 54)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 53% of 55)
- 70¢ and up: 67%(won 96% of 628)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.