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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankndb1Newshound
Record (consensus markets)45% (547–663, n=1210)66% (876–458, n=1334)71% (692–276, n=968)
Consensus PnL$11.0M$4.1M$65K
Tracked asPM monthly #1PM monthly #26PM monthly #793
Sides with the consensus68% (77 of 114 open)72% (28 of 39 open)35% (6 of 17 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=141, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=280, ROI +38%
Weakest topic—NFL −10 pts, n=132—
Settled positions, side won97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%72% of 968 at avg 59¢, ROI +9%
Entries under 30¢10% (won 81% of 57)13% (won 16% of 160)23% (won 23% of 218)
Entries 30–50¢36% (won 98% of 201)20% (won 40% of 253)13% (won 65% of 124)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 99% of 196)24% (won 57% of 310)17% (won 76% of 169)
Entries 70¢ and up19% (won 100% of 109)43% (won 93% of 544)47% (won 95% of 457)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

8 on the same side, 7 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankndb1Newshound
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $77KNo $1.9M—
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $1.4KNo $1.4M—
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $187KYes $777K—
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus No
No $265KYes $544K—
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $287KNo $61K—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $28KNo $831—
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $607—Yes $725
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $183KYes $324K—
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
No $42KNo $94K—
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus No
Yes $32KYes $12K—
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
Yes $33K—Yes $2.4K
Will Republicans win Iowa and Maine, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $35K—Yes $106
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
No $3.5KNo $7.0K—
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $4.2K—Yes $720
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
No $157No $4.0K—