Mentions: what top Polymarket traders hold
What gets said: word counts in speeches and posts. These are the Mentions markets on Polymarket in which at least five of the top traders we track hold a position, with the side most of them hold (the consensus), what share of them hold it and the market's own price for that side.
A consensus is a head count of who holds what, not a probability, and following it did not pay on average in our backtests — see how it works.
- Live consensus markets
- 4
- Recently settled, consensus right
- 16 of 26
- Prices as of
- Oct 25, 07:19 UTC
Live Mentions consensus markets (4)
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?Traders hold Yes 80%4 of 6 tradersMarket price 55¢$1K held
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?Traders hold No 40%2 of 5 tradersMarket price 90¢$2K held
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?Traders hold Yes 50%2 of 5 tradersMarket price 27¢$640 heldagainst the market price
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?Traders hold No 33%1 of 5 tradersMarket price 99¢$404 held
Top traders in Mentions
Tracked traders with 10 or more settled Mentions consensus markets whose side won more often than its entry price implied, ranked by how much (on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short lucky run does not rank first). These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero.
- 1.0xD67942cD1c1AF4287F80Fe5F11A01DB65Cf491A0-1767718931081+45 ptsside won 96% of 23 · avg entry 51¢ · ROI +21%
- 2.BigMackyG+39 ptsside won 75% of 75 · avg entry 36¢ · ROI +24%
- 3.PROBABILITYTRADER+28 ptsside won 89% of 428 · avg entry 61¢ · ROI +3%
- 4.Medo3D+28 ptsside won 92% of 273 · avg entry 63¢ · ROI +32%
- 5.BabyIBeenWatchingYou+33 ptsside won 94% of 31 · avg entry 61¢ · ROI +27%
- 6.pkz+24 ptsside won 61% of 252 · avg entry 37¢ · ROI +24%
- 7.Stonktrader+45 ptsside won 100% of 10 · avg entry 55¢ · ROI +10%
- 8.troim+28 ptsside won 67% of 51 · avg entry 39¢ · ROI +12%
- 9.lightotunnel35+21 ptsside won 92% of 65 · avg entry 71¢ · ROI +22%
- 10.JAMJAMJAM4+27 ptsside won 100% of 20 · avg entry 73¢ · ROI +25%
Recently settled Mentions markets
What the tracked traders held when each market settled, and how it came out. A handful of markets says little about the next one.
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?Result: NoTraders held Yes 100%consensus was wrong
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?Result: NoTraders held Yes 100%consensus was wrong
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?Result: NoTraders held Yes 63%consensus was wrong
- Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?Result: YesTraders held Yes 60%consensus was right
- Will Trump say "Crime" or "Criminal" 10+ times during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?Result: YesTraders held No 67%consensus was wrong
- Will MrBeast's next video get at least 120 million views on week 1?Result: YesTraders held Yes 57%consensus was right
- Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?Result: NoTraders held Yes 80%consensus was wrong
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?Result: NoTraders held Yes 100%consensus was wrong
- Will MrBeast's next video get between 110 and 120 million views on week 1?Result: NoTraders held No 80%consensus was right
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?Result: YesTraders held Yes 24%consensus was right
- Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1?Result: NoTraders held No 83%consensus was right
- Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1?Result: NoTraders held Yes 60%consensus was wrong
Holders update as the tracked traders trade, and prices refresh about once a minute. Only wallets with a position of at least 1 share count as holders; the side is the one with the most money behind it among holders with $100 or more in the market. PolyConsensus is not affiliated with Polymarket and this is not investment advice. More: all topics, the trader leaderboard, large trades.