Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 99¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$11.7K
$2.0K
98.9¢ → 98.8¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $4.3K | $6.3K | +$2.0K | 43% 552-726 (1278) |
 balthazar | Noavg 98.9¢ | $4.8K | $4.9K | +$2.1 | 61% 21089-13426 (34515) |
PO poposub | Noavg 99¢ | $265.35 | $266 | +$0.65 | 45% 2053-2462 (4515) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $189.88 | $157.89 | -$1.99 | 52% 1139-1031 (2170) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $64.58 | $64.81 | +$0.23 | 52% 2459-2280 (4739) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $52.5 | $52.5 | +$0 | 42% 1963-2767 (4730) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $47.33 | $47.5 | +$0.17 | 52% 4965-4595 (9560) |
Invested
$4,252.8
Value
$6.3K
PnL
+$2.0K
Record
43%
552-726 (1278)
balthazarInvested
$4,847.92
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$2.1
Record
61%
21089-13426 (34515)
Invested
$265.35
Value
$266
PnL
+$0.65
Record
45%
2053-2462 (4515)
Invested
$189.88
Value
$157.89
PnL
-$1.99
Record
52%
1139-1031 (2170)
Invested
$64.58
Value
$64.81
PnL
+$0.23
Record
52%
2459-2280 (4739)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$52.5
Value
$52.5
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
1963-2767 (4730)
Invested
$47.33
Value
$47.5
PnL
+$0.17
Record
52%
4965-4595 (9560)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.