Will Republicans win Iowa and Maine, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 3

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$14.4K

Combined PnL

$2.6K

Smart Money Entry

98.4¢ → 98.9¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares627,725

Combined PnL+$2.6K

No5 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares7,281

Combined PnL+$18.57

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$4.3K	$6.9K	+$2.6K	43% 552-726 (1278)
balthazar	Noavg 98.7¢	$4.8K	$4.8K	+$6.3	61% 21089-13426 (34515)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 97.6¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$11	56% 15305-11848 (27153)
PO poposub	Noavg 98.7¢	$264.64	$265.96	+$1.32	45% 2053-2462 (4515)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 1.1¢	$233.26	$238.64	+$5.38	52% 1139-1031 (2170)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$64.78	$64.75	-$0.03	52% 2459-2280 (4739)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$47.47	$47.45	-$0.02	52% 4965-4595 (9560)
JSG3CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$74.24	$40.21	-$34.04	59% 13-9 (22)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$37.52	$37.97	+$0.45	42% 1963-2767 (4730)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.14	$0.26	+$0.12	— 0-3 (3)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,252.8

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

43%

552-726 (1278)

balthazar

Invested

$4,838.8

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$6.3

Record

61%

21089-13426 (34515)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$1,952

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$11

Record

56%

15305-11848 (27153)

poposub

Invested

$264.64

Value

$265.96

PnL

+$1.32

Record

45%

2053-2462 (4515)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$233.26

Value

$238.64

PnL

+$5.38

Record

52%

1139-1031 (2170)

merod<$100

Invested

$64.78

Value

$64.75

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

2459-2280 (4739)

korda77<$100

Invested

$47.47

Value

$47.45

PnL

-$0.02

Record

52%

4965-4595 (9560)

JSG3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.24

Value

$40.21

PnL

-$34.04

Record

59%

13-9 (22)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.52

Value

$37.97

PnL

+$0.45

Record

42%

1963-2767 (4730)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.14

Value

$0.26

PnL

+$0.12

Record

—

0-3 (3)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.