Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (53%) · No at 85¢ · $551K held · ends Nov 3

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 53%

Total Value

$551.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

90.5¢ → 84.5¢

-7% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 15 top traders (53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$497.7K

Total Shares540,997

Combined PnL+$8.3K

Yes7 traders

Total Value$53.7K

Total Shares671,054

Combined PnL$-9.5K

No — 53%Yes — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBank	Noavg 90.5¢	$475.0K	$483.0K	+$8.0K	43% 552-726 (1278)
FL flawfenceCTR	Yesavg 9¢	$36.4K	$32.3K	$-4.0K	46% 268-310 (578)
aenews2CTR	Yesavg 10¢	$26.1K	$20.9K	$-5.2K	60% 1769-1170 (2939)
AB abc51001	Noavg 90¢	$4.7K	$4.8K	+$102.47	0% 0-27 (27)
BU BunCaCham	Noavg 91¢	$4.5K	$4.6K	+$50	97% 2572-66 (2638)
LI lissartter	Noavg 90.8¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$28.47	42% 5214-7149 (12363)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 90¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$46.34	45% 676-832 (1508)
SB sbimbg	Noavg 84¢	$840	$920	+$80	70% 3144-1356 (4500)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Yesavg 11¢	$279.23	$203.08	-$76.15	37% 181-308 (489)
FB fbetCTR	Yesavg 12.8¢	$287	$180	-$107	63% 17-10 (27)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 84.1¢	$51.78	$56.64	+$4.86	61% 21044-13396 (34440)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 90.4¢	$45.62	$46.44	+$0.82	57% 13663-10453 (24116)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$64.73	$43.1	+$33.25	36% 15393-27456 (42849)
LolakisCTR	Yesavg 16¢	$3.3K	$13.49	-$25.44	61% 655-414 (1069)
smellyEllieCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$20.36	$10.86	-$9.5	50% 949-961 (1910)

BreakTheBank

Invested

$475,000

Value

$483.0K

PnL

+$8.0K

Record

43%

552-726 (1278)

flawfenceCTR

Yes

Invested

$36,380.31

Value

$32.3K

PnL

$-4.0K

Record

46%

268-310 (578)

aenews2CTR

Yes

Invested

$26,131.61

Value

$20.9K

PnL

$-5.2K

Record

60%

1769-1170 (2939)

abc51001

Invested

$4,673.34

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$102.47

Record

0-27 (27)

BunCaCham

Invested

$4,550

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$50

Record

97%

2572-66 (2638)

lissartter

Invested

$2,175.17

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$28.47

Record

42%

5214-7149 (12363)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$2,068.74

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$46.34

Record

45%

676-832 (1508)

sbimbg

Invested

$840

Value

$920

PnL

+$80

Record

70%

3144-1356 (4500)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Yes

Invested

$279.23

Value

$203.08

PnL

-$76.15

Record

37%

181-308 (489)

fbetCTR

Yes

Invested

$287

Value

$180

PnL

-$107

Record

63%

17-10 (27)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$51.78

Value

$56.64

PnL

+$4.86

Record

61%

21044-13396 (34440)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$45.62

Value

$46.44

PnL

+$0.82

Record

57%

13663-10453 (24116)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.73

Value

$43.1

PnL

+$33.25

Record

36%

15393-27456 (42849)

LolakisCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,275

Value

$13.49

PnL

-$25.44

Record

61%

655-414 (1069)

smellyEllieCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.36

Value

$10.86

PnL

-$9.5

Record

50%

949-961 (1910)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 15 top traders (53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.0%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.