Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankeleonorrigbyfantasy7788Flaznorp
Record (consensus markets)57% (73–54, n=127)59% (10–7, n=17)56% (25–20, n=45)71% (3118–1302, n=4420)
Consensus PnL$2.5M$34K$861K$661K
Tracked asPM monthly #1PM monthly #922PM monthly #19PM monthly #7
Sides with the consensus50% (9 of 18 open)0% (0 of 1 open)50% (1 of 2 open)54% (109 of 201 open)
Strongest topics
  • NBA +48 pts n=37, ROI +45%
  • NFL +45 pts n=14, ROI +46%
none with 10+ settled
Weakest topic———Soccer −1 pts, n=653
Settled positions, side won100% of 61 at avg 54¢, ROI +44%100% of 10 at avg 57¢, ROI +42%100% of 24 at avg 48¢, ROI +53%41% of 1384 at avg 42¢, ROI −2%
Entries under 30¢0%10% (won 100% of 1)4% (won 100% of 1)41% (won 5% of 566)
Entries 30–50¢41% (won 100% of 25)20% (won 100% of 2)58% (won 100% of 14)24% (won 38% of 335)
Entries 50–70¢54% (won 100% of 33)40% (won 100% of 4)33% (won 100% of 8)11% (won 62% of 157)
Entries 70¢ and up5% (won 100% of 3)30% (won 100% of 3)4% (won 100% of 1)24% (won 94% of 326)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

1 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankeleonorrigbyfantasy7788Flaznorp
Hornets vs. Clippers
opposite sides · consensus Clippers
Clippers $21K—Clippers $42KHornets $6.1K
Spurs vs. Jazz
opposite sides · consensus Spurs
——Jazz $6.6KSpurs $2.4K
Lakers vs. Suns
opposite sides · consensus Lakers
Suns $389——Lakers $4.4K
Spread: Clippers (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Hornets
Clippers $608——Hornets $2.0K
Spread: Lakers (-2.5)
opposite sides · consensus Suns
Suns $45——Lakers $1.2K
49ers vs. Cowboys
same side · consensus 49ers
Cowboys $1.2M——Cowboys $17