Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Hornets, while the market favors Clippers (51%). 7 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Hornets vs. Clippers

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Hornets (54%) · Hornets at 50¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 15

Hornets50¢Clippers50¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hornets

Consensus Traders

Hornets 54%

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$599.43

Smart Money Entry

42.7¢ → 49.5¢

+16% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Clippers 51%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Hornets50%

Clippers51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hornets7 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares13,175

Combined PnL+$611.06

Clippers6 traders

Total Value$633.45

Total Shares1,219

Combined PnL-$11.63

Hornets — 54%Clippers — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

42h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Hornets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpHornets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrClippers 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Clippers 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941CTR	Hornetsavg 41.8¢	$4.7K	$5.3K	+$580.67	0% 0-107 (107)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Hornetsavg 49¢	$445.41	$449.96	+$4.54	38% 1230-1969 (3199)
fyrsken	Clippersavg 51.1¢	$409.11	$412.01	+$2.9	49% 60-63 (123)
GA GaditimaCTR	Hornetsavg 49¢	$396.17	$400.21	+$4.04	49% 333-346 (679)
GG GGLPL	Clippersavg 56.3¢	$100.98	$93.24	-$7.74	49% 27-28 (55)
TY Tys0n8686CTR<$100	Hornetsavg 41¢	$60.07	$68.86	+$8.79	68% 17-8 (25)
PA Pan9X<$100	Clippersavg 54.4¢	$47.89	$46.2	-$1.69	50% 1850-1880 (3730)
FO forecastication4<$100	Clippersavg 52¢	$40.74	$41.13	+$0.39	35% 187-347 (534)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Hornetsavg 35.3¢	$24.49	$31.58	+$7.08	50% 3962-3959 (7921)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Clippersavg 68¢	$28.35	$22.99	-$5.36	35% 128-233 (361)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 32¢	$12.41	$18.23	+$5.82	18% 60-272 (332)
GH ghorrock<$100	Clippersavg 51.9¢	$18.01	$17.89	-$0.13	53% 2078-1852 (3930)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 47¢	$11.28	$11.4	+$0.12	57% 3595-2677 (6272)

0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941CTR

Hornets

Invested

$4,677.08

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$580.67

Record

0-107 (107)

MadridTimeCTR

Hornets

Invested

$445.41

Value

$449.96

PnL

+$4.54

Record

38%

1230-1969 (3199)

fyrsken

Clippers

Invested

$409.11

Value

$412.01

PnL

+$2.9

Record

49%

60-63 (123)

GaditimaCTR

Hornets

Invested

$396.17

Value

$400.21

PnL

+$4.04

Record

49%

333-346 (679)

GGLPL

Clippers

Invested

$100.98

Value

$93.24

PnL

-$7.74

Record

49%

27-28 (55)

Tys0n8686CTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$60.07

Value

$68.86

PnL

+$8.79

Record

68%

17-8 (25)

Pan9X<$100

Clippers

Invested

$47.89

Value

$46.2

PnL

-$1.69

Record

50%

1850-1880 (3730)

forecastication4<$100

Clippers

Invested

$40.74

Value

$41.13

PnL

+$0.39

Record

35%

187-347 (534)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$24.49

Value

$31.58

PnL

+$7.08

Record

50%

3962-3959 (7921)

Oddstorm<$100

Clippers

Invested

$28.35

Value

$22.99

PnL

-$5.36

Record

35%

128-233 (361)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$12.41

Value

$18.23

PnL

+$5.82

Record

18%

60-272 (332)

ghorrock<$100

Clippers

Invested

$18.01

Value

$17.89

PnL

-$0.13

Record

53%

2078-1852 (3930)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$11.28

Value

$11.4

PnL

+$0.12

Record

57%

3595-2677 (6272)

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Clippers 51%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

42h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Hornets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpHornets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrClippers 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Clippers 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hornets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.