Spurs vs. Jazz

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (62%) · Spurs at 92¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15

Spurs92¢Jazz8¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 62%

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$16.44

Smart Money Entry

91¢ → 91.5¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs92%

Jazz9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs8 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares4,046

Combined PnL+$19.26

Jazz5 traders

Total Value$167.99

Total Shares1,878

Combined PnL-$2.82

Spurs — 62%Jazz — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSpurs 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Spursavg 91¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$14.69	56% 3778-2937 (6715)
PU purplegatto	Spursavg 91¢	$569.79	$572.92	+$3.13	68% 2656-1243 (3899)
GA Gaditima	Spursavg 91.7¢	$176.91	$145.02	-$0.96	49% 324-333 (657)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Jazzavg 9¢	$129.43	$129.43	-$0	47% 1065-1216 (2281)
FE ferdinand2	Spursavg 91¢	$110.11	$110.72	+$0.61	48% 2325-2529 (4854)
OD Oddstorm	Spursavg 90.3¢	$101.08	$101.91	+$0.83	34% 119-227 (346)
PA Pan9X<$100	Spursavg 90¢	$42.38	$42.89	+$0.51	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
SU suntori<$100	Spursavg 89.7¢	$30.47	$30.92	+$0.45	46% 2939-3486 (6425)
funnydayCTR<$100	Jazzavg 10¢	$20	$17	-$3	23% 7-24 (31)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Jazzavg 8.9¢	$14.36	$14.54	+$0.18	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
HY hydra1248<$100	Spursavg 91¢	$6.95	$6.95	+$0	75% 203-67 (270)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Jazzavg 9¢	$4.04	$4.04	-$0	53% 2063-1842 (3905)
GG GGLPLCTR<$100	Jazzavg 9¢	$2.97	$2.97	-$0	51% 26-25 (51)

HomeRunHazard

Spurs

Invested

$2,674.4

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$14.69

Record

56%

3778-2937 (6715)

purplegatto

Spurs

Invested

$569.79

Value

$572.92

PnL

+$3.13

Record

68%

2656-1243 (3899)

Gaditima

Spurs

Invested

$176.91

Value

$145.02

PnL

-$0.96

Record

49%

324-333 (657)

SnakeBallCTR

Jazz

Invested

$129.43

Value

$129.43

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

1065-1216 (2281)

ferdinand2

Spurs

Invested

$110.11

Value

$110.72

PnL

+$0.61

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

Oddstorm

Spurs

Invested

$101.08

Value

$101.91

PnL

+$0.83

Record

34%

119-227 (346)

Pan9X<$100

Spurs

Invested

$42.38

Value

$42.89

PnL

+$0.51

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

suntori<$100

Spurs

Invested

$30.47

Value

$30.92

PnL

+$0.45

Record

46%

2939-3486 (6425)

funnydayCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$20

Value

$17

PnL

-$3

Record

23%

7-24 (31)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$14.36

Value

$14.54

PnL

+$0.18

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

hydra1248<$100

Spurs

Invested

$6.95

Value

$6.95

PnL

+$0

Record

75%

203-67 (270)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$4.04

Value

$4.04

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

GGLPLCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$2.97

Value

$2.97

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

26-25 (51)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSpurs 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.