Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Suns, while the market favors Lakers (54%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Lakers (-2.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (70%) · Suns at 47¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Lakers54¢Suns46¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Suns

Consensus Traders

Suns 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$10.74

Smart Money Entry

46.5¢ → 46.5¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Lakers 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers54%

Suns47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lakers3 traders

Total Value$725.7

Total Shares1,353

Combined PnL-$6.21

Suns7 traders

Total Value$828.4

Total Shares1,786

Combined PnL-$4.53

Lakers — 30%Suns — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+37 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Lakers) and the top 1000 (9 on Suns) disagree here.

ctrLakers 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedLakers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Suns 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU suntori	Lakersavg 54¢	$1.1K	$546.65	-$14.53	46% 3204-3750 (6954)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Sunsavg 47¢	$495.37	$494.44	-$0.93	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 47¢	$333.17	$326.01	-$7.16
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 52¢	$162.19	$168.43	+$6.24
LI LimousinCTR	Sunsavg 47¢	$401.85	$397.58	-$4.27	38% 1314-2163 (3477)
VeryLucky888	Lakersavg 52¢	$260	$176.36	+$8.27	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
NM NM-PCTR	Sunsavg 46¢	$163.6	$163.7	+$0.1	59% 3948-2729 (6677)
GC GC-PCTR	Sunsavg 46¢	$161	$161	+$0	42% 547-747 (1294)
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100	Sunsavg 46¢	$89.8	$89.8	+$0	69% 1738-775 (2513)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Sunsavg 47¢	$8.87	$8.68	-$0.19	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Sunsavg 47¢	$5.46	$5.34	-$0.12	50% 2174-2194 (4368)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Lakersavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.7	+$0.05	43% 851-1135 (1986)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Sunsavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.3	-$0.05	41% 1173-1667 (2840)

suntori

Lakers

Invested

$1,097.66

Value

$546.65

PnL

-$14.53

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$495.37

Value

$494.44

PnL

-$0.93

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

Both legs:

Suns$333.1747¢-$7.16

Lakers$162.1952¢+$6.24

LimousinCTR

Suns

Invested

$401.85

Value

$397.58

PnL

-$4.27

Record

38%

1314-2163 (3477)

VeryLucky888

Lakers

Invested

$260

Value

$176.36

PnL

+$8.27

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

NM-PCTR

Suns

Invested

$163.6

Value

$163.7

PnL

+$0.1

Record

59%

3948-2729 (6677)

GC-PCTR

Suns

Invested

$161

Value

$161

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

547-747 (1294)

SunlineTickerCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$89.8

Value

$89.8

PnL

+$0

Record

69%

1738-775 (2513)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$8.87

Value

$8.68

PnL

-$0.19

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$5.46

Value

$5.34

PnL

-$0.12

Record

50%

2174-2194 (4368)

ameisgoat11<$100

Lakers

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.7

PnL

+$0.05

Record

43%

851-1135 (1986)

sentrioCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.3

PnL

-$0.05

Record

41%

1173-1667 (2840)

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Lakers 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+37 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Lakers) and the top 1000 (9 on Suns) disagree here.

ctrLakers 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedLakers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Suns 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Suns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.