Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Suns, while the market favors Lakers (63%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Lakers vs. Suns
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (50%) · Suns at 37¢ · $649 held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Suns
8
Suns 50%
1 arb excluded
$648.99
$69.86
30.2¢ → 37¢
+23% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidSuns at 37%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Lakers 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+6 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Late
58h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 fyrskenCTR | Sunsavg 35¢ | $210.69 | $216.71 | +$6.02 | 52% 55-51 (106) |
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100 | Lakersavg 67.4¢ | $153.6 | $166.04 | +$12.44 | 50% 3804-3774 (7578) |
| └ Lakers leg | Lakersavg 67.4¢ | $131.43 | $124.8 | -$6.63 | |
| └ Suns leg | Sunsavg 19.4¢ | $22.17 | $41.24 | +$19.07 | |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Sunsavg 19¢ | $72.33 | $88.07 | +$44.74 | 48% 3199-3501 (6700) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Sunsavg 26.7¢ | $58.55 | $73.16 | +$14.61 | 32% 99-206 (305) |
SU suntori<$100 | Lakersavg 64¢ | $38.09 | $38.09 | -$0 | 46% 2602-3088 (5690) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Lakersavg 63.8¢ | $68.15 | $34.8 | +$5.12 | 50% 1585-1605 (3190) |
TY Tys0n8686CTR<$100 | Sunsavg 36¢ | $16.76 | $17 | +$0.23 | 67% 14-7 (21) |
GA Gaditima<$100 | Lakersavg 70¢ | $8.71 | $7.96 | -$0.75 | 48% 270-288 (558) |
TH thatsabing0<$100 | Lakersavg 65¢ | $7.27 | $7.16 | -$0.11 | 63% 208-124 (332) |
fyrskenCTRInvested
$210.69
Value
$216.71
PnL
+$6.02
Record
52%
55-51 (106)
Invested
$153.6
Value
$166.04
PnL
+$12.44
Record
50%
3804-3774 (7578)
Both legs:
Invested
$72.33
Value
$88.07
PnL
+$44.74
Record
48%
3199-3501 (6700)
Invested
$58.55
Value
$73.16
PnL
+$14.61
Record
32%
99-206 (305)
Invested
$38.09
Value
$38.09
PnL
-$0
Record
46%
2602-3088 (5690)
Invested
$68.15
Value
$34.8
PnL
+$5.12
Record
50%
1585-1605 (3190)
Invested
$16.76
Value
$17
PnL
+$0.23
Record
67%
14-7 (21)
Invested
$8.71
Value
$7.96
PnL
-$0.75
Record
48%
270-288 (558)
Invested
$7.27
Value
$7.16
PnL
-$0.11
Record
63%
208-124 (332)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.