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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankFlaznorpjeremyclar
Record (consensus markets)45% (571–700, n=1271)53% (5952–5311, n=11263)44% (50–64, n=114)
Consensus PnL$9.4M$3.3M$4.2K
Tracked asPM monthly #1PM monthly #22was PM monthly #871
Sides with the consensus59% (17 of 29 open)68% (221 of 323 open)33% (3 of 9 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=140, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
  • Tennis +14 pts n=49, ROI +25%
  • NHL +9 pts n=57, ROI +13%
  • Esports +9 pts n=13, ROI +14%
none with 10+ settled
Weakest topic—Other Sports −13 pts, n=22NBA −2 pts, n=55
Settled positions, side won97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%56% of 1482 at avg 54¢, ROI +28%45% of 105 at avg 48¢, ROI +3%
Entries under 30¢11% (won 80% of 61)29% (won 11% of 423)2% (won 0% of 2)
Entries 30–50¢35% (won 98% of 203)16% (won 40% of 243)69% (won 40% of 72)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 100% of 201)17% (won 62% of 255)20% (won 43% of 21)
Entries 70¢ and up20% (won 100% of 115)38% (won 94% of 561)10% (won 90% of 10)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

6 on the same side, 8 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankFlaznorpjeremyclar
76ers vs. Pistons
opposite sides · consensus Pistons
Pistons $90K76ers $7.5K76ers $22K
Spread: Celtics (-11.5)
opposite sides · consensus Celtics
Celtics $14KBucks $2.4KCeltics $9.7K
Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)
opposite sides · consensus Grizzlies
Grizzlies $218KPacers $2.9K—
Spread: Pelicans (-5.5)
opposite sides · consensus Jazz
Jazz $19KPelicans $823—
Spread: Celtics (-17.5)
opposite sides · consensus Bucks
—Bucks $3.6KCeltics $3.0K
Spread: Thunder (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Thunder
—Thunder $1.0KCavaliers $3.6K
Spread: Celtics (-16.5)
opposite sides · consensus Celtics
—Bucks $913Celtics $150
Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus Pacers
Grizzlies $357Pacers $269—
Pacers vs. Grizzlies
same side · consensus Grizzlies
—Grizzlies $663Grizzlies $3.3K
Spread: Celtics (-12.5)
same side · consensus Celtics
Celtics $880Celtics $1.3K—
Spread: Pistons (-3.5)
same side · consensus Pistons
Pistons $442Pistons $1.5K—
Spread: Pacers (-1.5)
same side · consensus Pacers
—Grizzlies $16Grizzlies $1.7K
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)
same side · consensus Raptors
—Nuggets $202Nuggets $1.4K
Spread: Pelicans (-2.5)
same side · consensus Jazz
Jazz $323Jazz $287—