Spread: Celtics (-11.5)

10 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (59%) · Celtics at 51¢ · $87K held · ends Nov 5

Celtics51¢Bucks49¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 59%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$87.3K

Combined PnL

$-2.0K

Smart Money Entry

49.5¢ → 50.5¢

+2% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

10 of 17 top traders (59%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics51%

Bucks50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics10 traders

Total Value$34.3K

Total Shares69,006

Combined PnL+$130.08

Bucks7 traders

Total Value$26.8K

Total Shares49,527

Combined PnL$-2.1K

Celtics — 59%Bucks — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Celticsavg 49.6¢	$21.5K	$21.5K	-$60.37	48% 303-327 (630)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Bucksavg 53¢	$19.2K	$19.3K	+$104.78	54% 18039-15167 (33206)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 46.7¢	$9.4K	$10.0K	+$561.11
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 53¢	$9.8K	$9.3K	-$456.32
nigiri99CTR	Bucksavg 55¢	$11.9K	$11.1K	-$866.31	46% 8410-9880 (18290)
VeryLucky888CTR	Bucksavg 56.1¢	$9.4K	$8.3K	-$808.31	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
BR BreakTheBank	Celticsavg 51.2¢	$6.3K	$6.2K	-$90.63	44% 605-765 (1370)
FO forecastication4	Celticsavg 47¢	$3.8K	$4.0K	+$200	50% 1337-1356 (2693)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Bucksavg 54.9¢	$3.4K	$3.2K	-$229.65	60% 4421-2917 (7338)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Bucksavg 52.1¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$23.6	40% 1343-2037 (3380)
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 52.1¢	$998.1	$967.49	-$30.6
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 49.1¢	$859.25	$866.25	+$7
BI biying99999CTR	Bucksavg 56.2¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$168.57	49% 139-145 (284)
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Bucksavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$30	66% 3663-1846 (5509)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Celticsavg 47.2¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$42.61	51% 3584-3513 (7097)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 47.2¢	$751.36	$787.65	+$36.29
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 50¢	$643.55	$649.87	+$6.32
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Bucksavg 50¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$25	50% 525-521 (1046)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Celticsavg 48.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$8.18	50% 25488-25195 (50683)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 48.2¢	$811.67	$834.02	+$22.35
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 52.6¢	$360.92	$346.75	-$14.17
PL pltrkr111	Celticsavg 46¢	$1,000	$1.1K	+$76.09	54% 755-638 (1393)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Bucksavg 50¢	$886	$900.25	+$14.25	39% 1339-2113 (3452)
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 50¢	$462.5	$467.13	+$4.63
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 48.4¢	$423.5	$433.13	+$9.63
HI hi774c	Celticsavg 49¢	$783	$790.99	+$7.99	50% 4959-4888 (9847)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Bucksavg 55.4¢	$702.69	$649.01	-$53.67	50% 20743-20989 (41732)
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 55.4¢	$539.09	$491	-$48.09
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 51.2¢	$163.6	$158.01	-$5.59
0X 0xC576775EF9167dDc38ee6a4E537545ab73d0b9d2-1789288093603	Celticsavg 50.2¢	$512.75	$505.1	-$7.65	44% 29-37 (66)
RN1ARB<$100	Bucksavg 51.6¢	$496.06	$489.81	-$6.24	53% 60065-52434 (112499)
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 51.6¢	$369.89	$362.28	-$7.61
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 49¢	$126.16	$127.53	+$1.36
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Bucksavg 49.7¢	$724.17	$448.59	+$7.5	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 49.7¢	$276.38	$280.78	+$9.13
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 48.5¢	$164.27	$167.81	-$1.63
FL Flaznorp	Celticsavg 49¢	$212.66	$214.83	+$2.17	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Bucksavg 55¢	$30.8	$28.28	-$2.52	49% 6204-6345 (12549)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Celticsavg 49¢	$21.57	$21.79	+$0.22	51% 1793-1714 (3507)
E4 e46m3<$100	Celticsavg 44¢	$13.65	$15.36	+$1.71	72% 13979-5358 (19337)
0xheavy888<$100	Celticsavg 47.7¢	$14.3	$14.85	+$0.55	56% 7724-6188 (13912)

Multicoloured-Serf

Celtics

Invested

$21,516.5

Value

$21.5K

PnL

-$60.37

Record

48%

303-327 (630)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Bucks

Invested

$19,209.75

Value

$19.3K

PnL

+$104.78

Record

54%

18039-15167 (33206)

Both legs:

Celtics$9,424.1846.7¢+$561.11

Bucks$9,785.5753¢-$456.32

nigiri99CTR

Bucks

Invested

$11,924.57

Value

$11.1K

PnL

-$866.31

Record

46%

8410-9880 (18290)

VeryLucky888CTR

Bucks

Invested

$9,401.22

Value

$8.3K

PnL

-$808.31

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

BreakTheBank

Celtics

Invested

$6,316.73

Value

$6.2K

PnL

-$90.63

Record

44%

605-765 (1370)

forecastication4

Celtics

Invested

$3,760

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$200

Record

50%

1337-1356 (2693)

SunlineTickerCTR

Bucks

Invested

$3,380.37

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$229.65

Record

60%

4421-2917 (7338)

NM-PARB<$100

Bucks

Invested

$1,857.35

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$23.6

Record

40%

1343-2037 (3380)

Both legs:

Bucks$998.152.1¢-$30.6

Celtics$859.2549.1¢+$7

biying99999CTR

Bucks

Invested

$1,652.26

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$168.57

Record

49%

139-145 (284)

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Bucks

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$30

Record

66%

3663-1846 (5509)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$1,394.91

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$42.61

Record

51%

3584-3513 (7097)

Both legs:

Celtics$751.3647.2¢+$36.29

Bucks$643.5550¢+$6.32

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Bucks

Invested

$1,250

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$25

Record

50%

525-521 (1046)

sentrioARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$1,172.59

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$8.18

Record

50%

25488-25195 (50683)

Both legs:

Celtics$811.6748.2¢+$22.35

Bucks$360.9252.6¢-$14.17

pltrkr111

Celtics

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$76.09

Record

54%

755-638 (1393)

GC-PARB<$100

Bucks

Invested

$886

Value

$900.25

PnL

+$14.25

Record

39%

1339-2113 (3452)

Both legs:

Bucks$462.550¢+$4.63

Celtics$423.548.4¢+$9.63

hi774c

Celtics

Invested

$783

Value

$790.99

PnL

+$7.99

Record

50%

4959-4888 (9847)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Bucks

Invested

$702.69

Value

$649.01

PnL

-$53.67

Record

50%

20743-20989 (41732)

Both legs:

Bucks$539.0955.4¢-$48.09

Celtics$163.651.2¢-$5.59

0xC576775EF9167dDc38ee6a4E537545ab73d0b9d2-1789288093603

Celtics

Invested

$512.75

Value

$505.1

PnL

-$7.65

Record

44%

29-37 (66)

RN1ARB<$100

Bucks

Invested

$496.06

Value

$489.81

PnL

-$6.24

Record

53%

60065-52434 (112499)

Both legs:

Bucks$369.8951.6¢-$7.61

Celtics$126.1649¢+$1.36

38791873984189ARB<$100

Bucks

Invested

$724.17

Value

$448.59

PnL

+$7.5

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

Both legs:

Bucks$276.3849.7¢+$9.13

Celtics$164.2748.5¢-$1.63

Flaznorp

Celtics

Invested

$212.66

Value

$214.83

PnL

+$2.17

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$30.8

Value

$28.28

PnL

-$2.52

Record

49%

6204-6345 (12549)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Celtics

Invested

$21.57

Value

$21.79

PnL

+$0.22

Record

51%

1793-1714 (3507)

e46m3<$100

Celtics

Invested

$13.65

Value

$15.36

PnL

+$1.71

Record

72%

13979-5358 (19337)

0xheavy888<$100

Celtics

Invested

$14.3

Value

$14.85

PnL

+$0.55

Record

56%

7724-6188 (13912)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

10 of 17 top traders (59%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.