Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold 76ers, while the market favors Pistons (52%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

76ers vs. Pistons

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (44%) · 76ers at 49¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 5

76ers49¢Pistons51¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

-$61.42

Smart Money Entry

49.5¢ → 48.5¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Pistons 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers49%

Pistons52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers4 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares6,192

Combined PnL-$41.45

Pistons5 traders

Total Value$557.68

Total Shares1,099

Combined PnL-$19.97

76ers — 44%Pistons — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whale76ers 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrPistons 67% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Pistons 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NS NS13CTR	76ersavg 50.2¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$37.99	52% 424-390 (814)
PU purplegattoCTR	76ersavg 48.9¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$12.37	50% 6072-6173 (12245)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Pistonsavg 49.9¢	$819.41	$591.77	+$3.37	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 49.9¢	$302.85	$312.4	+$9.21
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 49.6¢	$285.94	$279.37	-$5.84
fyrsken	Pistonsavg 52¢	$415.99	$399.99	-$16	49% 310-329 (639)
nigiri99CTR	76ersavg 47¢	$96.35	$100.45	+$10.25	46% 8245-9621 (17866)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Pistonsavg 51.4¢	$98.31	$95.66	-$2.64	53% 11759-10241 (22000)
GH ghorrockCTR	76ersavg 49.7¢	$196.86	$80.84	-$1.34	58% 18597-13721 (32318)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Pistonsavg 52¢	$39.36	$37.85	-$1.51	50% 20187-20523 (40710)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Pistonsavg 50.7¢	$15.77	$18.18	+$0.36	51% 4504-4380 (8884)
TA takeormake<$100	Pistonsavg 54¢	$6.48	$6	-$0.18	53% 4649-4137 (8786)

NS13CTR

76ers

Invested

$1,527.97

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$37.99

Record

52%

424-390 (814)

purplegattoCTR

76ers

Invested

$1,431.16

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$12.37

Record

50%

6072-6173 (12245)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$819.41

Value

$591.77

PnL

+$3.37

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

Both legs:

Pistons$302.8549.9¢+$9.21

76ers$285.9449.6¢-$5.84

fyrsken

Pistons

Invested

$415.99

Value

$399.99

PnL

-$16

Record

49%

310-329 (639)

nigiri99CTR

76ers

Invested

$96.35

Value

$100.45

PnL

+$10.25

Record

46%

8245-9621 (17866)

BoomLaLa<$100

Pistons

Invested

$98.31

Value

$95.66

PnL

-$2.64

Record

53%

11759-10241 (22000)

ghorrockCTR

76ers

Invested

$196.86

Value

$80.84

PnL

-$1.34

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Pistons

Invested

$39.36

Value

$37.85

PnL

-$1.51

Record

50%

20187-20523 (40710)

6512395314597884<$100

Pistons

Invested

$15.77

Value

$18.18

PnL

+$0.36

Record

51%

4504-4380 (8884)

takeormake<$100

Pistons

Invested

$6.48

Value

PnL

-$0.18

Record

53%

4649-4137 (8786)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Pistons 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whale76ers 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrPistons 67% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Pistons 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.