Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Pistons, while the market favors 76ers (99%). 9 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Pistons (-3.5)

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (64%) · Pistons at 1.5¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 5

Pistons1¢76ers99¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pistons

Consensus Traders

Pistons 64%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

$-2.3K

Smart Money Entry

42.7¢ → 1.5¢

-97% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 99%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons1%

76ers99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers5 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares5,084

Combined PnL+$954.11

Pistons9 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares10,351

Combined PnL$-3.3K

76ers — 36%Pistons — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	76ersavg 75.2¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$59.36	56% 7920-6245 (14165)
0X 0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893	76ersavg 51¢	$1.3K	$2.1K	+$849.99	39% 432-689 (1121)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Pistonsavg 38.8¢	$3.2K	$1.5K	$-1.8K	51% 24452-23135 (47587)
NM NM-PARB<$100	76ersavg 53¢	$500	$535	+$35	40% 1398-2089 (3487)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 53¢	$265	$425	+$160
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 47¢	$235	$110	-$125
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Pistonsavg 48.1¢	$965.63	$442.07	-$523.56	44% 624-798 (1422)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Pistonsavg 51.2¢	$501.68	$285.78	-$215.9	46% 1416-1675 (3091)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 51.2¢	$443.34	$190.42	-$252.93
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 52¢	$58.34	$95.36	+$37.02
SL SlickRick123CTR	Pistonsavg 48¢	$563.52	$258.28	-$305.24	48% 5307-5802 (11109)
38 38791873984189CTR	Pistonsavg 37.8¢	$419.87	$180.98	-$228.09	48% 59434-63450 (122884)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Pistonsavg 46¢	$291.84	$139.55	-$152.28	60% 4424-2918 (7342)
TA takeormake	76ersavg 92.4¢	$129.32	$131.6	+$2.28	53% 4711-4219 (8930)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Pistonsavg 44¢	$163.27	$130.8	-$32.47	54% 18039-15168 (33207)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 52¢	$43.33	$70.83	+$27.5
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 44¢	$119.94	$59.97	-$59.97
PP ppku6298CTR	Pistonsavg 47¢	$268.83	$105.81	-$163.01	45% 110-137 (247)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	76ersavg 62¢	$113.51	$92.51	+$22.13	50% 4274-4238 (8512)
alpheclabs2CTR	Pistonsavg 46¢	$380.77	$68.54	-$106.62	47% 1182-1355 (2537)
HE Herdonia<$100	76ersavg 52¢	$32.03	$52.36	+$20.33	51% 3584-3513 (7097)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 38.2¢	$38.17	$22	-$16.17	61% 2426-1548 (3974)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 45¢	$7.1	$6.45	-$0.65	52% 8633-7856 (16489)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

76ers

Invested

$2,211.3

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$59.36

Record

56%

7920-6245 (14165)

0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893

76ers

Invested

$1,274.99

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$849.99

Record

39%

432-689 (1121)

FlaznorpCTR

Pistons

Invested

$3,233.8

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

51%

24452-23135 (47587)

NM-PARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$500

Value

$535

PnL

+$35

Record

40%

1398-2089 (3487)

Both legs:

Invested

$965.63

Value

$442.07

PnL

-$523.56

Record

44%

624-798 (1422)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$501.68

Value

$285.78

PnL

-$215.9

Record

46%

1416-1675 (3091)

Both legs:

Pistons$443.3451.2¢-$252.93

76ers$58.3452¢+$37.02

SlickRick123CTR

Pistons

Invested

$563.52

Value

$258.28

PnL

-$305.24

Record

48%

5307-5802 (11109)

38791873984189CTR

Pistons

Invested

$419.87

Value

$180.98

PnL

-$228.09

Record

48%

59434-63450 (122884)

SunlineTickerCTR

Pistons

Invested

$291.84

Value

$139.55

PnL

-$152.28

Record

60%

4424-2918 (7342)

takeormake

76ers

Invested

$129.32

Value

$131.6

PnL

+$2.28

Record

53%

4711-4219 (8930)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$163.27

Value

$130.8

PnL

-$32.47

Record

54%

18039-15168 (33207)

Both legs:

76ers$43.3352¢+$27.5

Pistons$119.9444¢-$59.97

ppku6298CTR

Pistons

Invested

$268.83

Value

$105.81

PnL

-$163.01

Record

45%

110-137 (247)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

76ers

Invested

$113.51

Value

$92.51

PnL

+$22.13

Record

50%

4274-4238 (8512)

alpheclabs2CTR

Pistons

Invested

$380.77

Value

$68.54

PnL

-$106.62

Record

47%

1182-1355 (2537)

Herdonia<$100

76ers

Invested

$32.03

Value

$52.36

PnL

+$20.33

Record

51%

3584-3513 (7097)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$38.17

Value

$22

PnL

-$16.17

Record

61%

2426-1548 (3974)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$7.1

Value

$6.45

PnL

-$0.65

Record

52%

8633-7856 (16489)

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 99%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pistons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.6%

1.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3791.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

3891.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.