Pacers vs. Grizzlies

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (70%) · Grizzlies at 74¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 5

Pacers27¢Grizzlies73¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Grizzlies

Consensus Traders

Grizzlies 70%

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

-$88.39

Smart Money Entry

74.9¢ → 73.5¢

-2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pacers27%

Grizzlies74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Grizzlies7 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares7,985

Combined PnL-$157.61

Pacers3 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares8,137

Combined PnL+$69.22

Grizzlies — 70%Pacers — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGrizzlies 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrGrizzlies 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Grizzlies 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PU purplegatto	Grizzliesavg 74.8¢	$3.6K	$3.5K	-$62.74	50% 6072-6173 (12245)
AA aaabbb	Grizzliesavg 75¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$88.86	50% 450-450 (900)
TY Tys0n8686CTR	Pacersavg 26¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$38.67	62% 349-215 (564)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Pacersavg 18.8¢	$74.15	$102.35	+$30.16	51% 4504-4380 (8884)
38 38791873984189	Grizzliesavg 80¢	$104.56	$99.23	-$9.36	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
GH ghorrock<$100	Grizzliesavg 73.2¢	$62.3	$51.85	+$3.68	58% 18597-13721 (32318)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Grizzliesavg 73¢	$10.22	$10.08	-$0.14	53% 2336-2055 (4391)
GA Gaditima<$100	Grizzliesavg 73¢	$6.61	$6.52	-$0.09	48% 6897-7543 (14440)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Grizzliesavg 74¢	$3.7	$3.6	-$0.1	50% 20187-20523 (40710)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Pacersavg 22¢	$1.9	$2.25	+$0.39	45% 13648-16581 (30229)

purplegatto

Grizzlies

Invested

$3,572.1

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$62.74

Record

50%

6072-6173 (12245)

aaabbb

Grizzlies

Invested

$2,248.86

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$88.86

Record

50%

450-450 (900)

Tys0n8686CTR

Pacers

Invested

$2,011.06

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$38.67

Record

62%

349-215 (564)

6512395314597884CTR

Pacers

Invested

$74.15

Value

$102.35

PnL

+$30.16

Record

51%

4504-4380 (8884)

38791873984189

Grizzlies

Invested

$104.56

Value

$99.23

PnL

-$9.36

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

ghorrock<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$62.3

Value

$51.85

PnL

+$3.68

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$10.22

Value

$10.08

PnL

-$0.14

Record

53%

2336-2055 (4391)

Gaditima<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$6.61

Value

$6.52

PnL

-$0.09

Record

48%

6897-7543 (14440)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$3.7

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

20187-20523 (40710)

suntoriCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$1.9

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0.39

Record

45%

13648-16581 (30229)

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGrizzlies 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrGrizzlies 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Grizzlies 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Grizzlies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.