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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankFlaznorpNOO-Yes
Record (consensus markets)45% (571–700, n=1271)53% (5952–5311, n=11263)40% (2–3, n=5)
Consensus PnL$9.4M$3.3M$2.7K
Tracked asPM monthly #1PM monthly #22was PM monthly #417
Sides with the consensus59% (17 of 29 open)68% (237 of 351 open)0% (0 of 1 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=140, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
  • Tennis +14 pts n=49, ROI +25%
  • NHL +9 pts n=57, ROI +13%
  • Esports +9 pts n=13, ROI +14%
none with 10+ settled
Weakest topic—Other Sports −13 pts, n=22—
Settled positions, side won97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%56% of 1482 at avg 54¢, ROI +28%75% of 4 at avg 61¢, ROI +30%
Entries under 30¢11% (won 80% of 61)29% (won 11% of 423)0%
Entries 30–50¢35% (won 98% of 203)16% (won 40% of 243)25% (won 100% of 1)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 100% of 201)17% (won 62% of 255)50% (won 50% of 2)
Entries 70¢ and up20% (won 100% of 115)38% (won 94% of 561)25% (won 100% of 1)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

2 on the same side, 6 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankFlaznorpNOO-Yes
Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)
opposite sides · consensus Grizzlies
Grizzlies $218KPacers $3.3K—
76ers vs. Pistons
opposite sides · consensus Pistons
Pistons $90K76ers $7.5K—
Spread: Pelicans (-5.5)
opposite sides · consensus Jazz
Jazz $19KPelicans $709—
Spread: Celtics (-11.5)
opposite sides · consensus Celtics
Celtics $14KBucks $2.4K—
Bucks vs. Celtics
opposite sides · consensus Celtics
—Celtics $3.7KBucks $242
Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus Pacers
Grizzlies $357Pacers $864—
Spread: Celtics (-12.5)
same side · consensus Celtics
Celtics $880Celtics $1.3K—
Spread: Pistons (-3.5)
same side · consensus Pistons
Pistons $442Pistons $1.5K—