Bucks vs. Celtics

16 of 31 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (52%) · Celtics at 94¢ · $471K held · ended Nov 5

Bucks7¢Celtics93¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 52%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$470.5K

Combined PnL

$188.44

Smart Money Entry

84.4¢ → 93.5¢

+11% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

16 of 31 top traders (52%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bucks7%

Celtics94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics16 traders

Total Value$390.4K

Total Shares459,268

Combined PnL-$144.85

Bucks15 traders

Total Value$22.1K

Total Shares143,872

Combined PnL+$333.29

Celtics — 52%Bucks — 48%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+23 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

87% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCeltics 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpCeltics 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCeltics 93% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedCeltics 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Celtics 87% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA jakepaulthegoat2008	Celticsavg 85.1¢	$333.0K	$330.7K	$-2.3K	50% 7391-7520 (14911)
nigiri99	Celticsavg 79.3¢	$36.1K	$38.3K	+$2.2K	46% 8410-9880 (18290)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Celticsavg 80.2¢	$26.3K	$27.1K	+$884.33	54% 18039-15167 (33206)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 80.2¢	$19.2K	$20.2K	+$1.0K
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 15.8¢	$7.1K	$7.0K	-$140.3
MU Multicoloured-SerfARB<$100	Celticsavg 79.9¢	$13.3K	$11.5K	$-1.8K	48% 303-327 (630)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 79.9¢	$7.4K	$8.6K	+$1.2K
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 15.1¢	$5.9K	$2.9K	$-3.0K
65 6512395314597884	Celticsavg 82.3¢	$10.3K	$9.9K	-$363.89	51% 4648-4479 (9127)
PU purplegattoARB<$100	Bucksavg 21.7¢	$10.8K	$8.8K	$-1.7K	49% 6204-6345 (12549)
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 21.7¢	$8.6K	$7.0K	$-1.6K
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 83.4¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$119.69
0x3mf379C47E653dafa153841a995Cf975B6a02fxdCTR	Bucksavg 15¢	$7.6K	$7.8K	+$247.52	67% 309-151 (460)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Celticsavg 81.5¢	$4.8K	$4.8K	+$44.06	51% 3584-3513 (7097)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 81.5¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$97.41
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 15.9¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$53.35
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Bucksavg 15¢	$32.0K	$4.4K	+$141.14	49% 434-452 (886)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Bucksavg 15¢	$3.9K	$4.0K	+$129.17	50% 2686-2677 (5363)
GA Gaditima	Celticsavg 80.5¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$99.45	48% 7105-7804 (14909)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Celticsavg 81.1¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$35.72	40% 1343-2037 (3380)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 81.1¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$60
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 17.2¢	$577.94	$553.67	-$24.28
SE sentrio	Celticsavg 80.6¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$63.39	50% 25488-25195 (50683)
FL Flaznorp	Celticsavg 81¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$162.26	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Celticsavg 80.9¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$60	39% 1339-2113 (3452)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 80.9¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$72.5
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 15.9¢	$477.5	$465	-$12.5
NO NOO-YesCTR	Bucksavg 15¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$67.32	— 2-2 (4)
DO DolphinBaller	Celticsavg 83¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$10	45% 109-135 (244)
VeryLucky888CTR	Bucksavg 15.8¢	$9.1K	$1.3K	-$150.5	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
HI hi774cCTR	Bucksavg 15¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$35.59	50% 4959-4888 (9847)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Bucksavg 15.5¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$0	71% 7122-2863 (9985)
HE henryttok	Celticsavg 87.7¢	$794.85	$797.09	+$2.24	—
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Celticsavg 81.1¢	$5.0K	$460.56	-$167.87	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 81.1¢	$301.25	$343.73	-$613.33
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 18.1¢	$281.91	$116.83	+$445.46
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Celticsavg 83¢	$332	$334	+$2	51% 1793-1714 (3507)
BO BoomLaLa	Celticsavg 81¢	$244.88	$250.88	+$6.06	54% 11950-10370 (22320)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Bucksavg 13¢	$370.09	$241.19	-$128.9	46% 1395-1652 (3047)

jakepaulthegoat2008

Celtics

Invested

$333,016.05

Value

$330.7K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

50%

7391-7520 (14911)

nigiri99

Celtics

Invested

$36,060.39

Value

$38.3K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

46%

8410-9880 (18290)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$26,259.1

Value

$27.1K

PnL

+$884.33

Record

54%

18039-15167 (33206)

Both legs:

Celtics$19,158.5780.2¢+$1.0K

Bucks$7,100.5315.8¢-$140.3

Multicoloured-SerfARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$13,325.17

Value

$11.5K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

48%

303-327 (630)

Both legs:

Celtics$7,398.8579.9¢+$1.2K

Bucks$5,926.3115.1¢$-3.0K

6512395314597884

Celtics

Invested

$10,252.53

Value

$9.9K

PnL

-$363.89

Record

51%

4648-4479 (9127)

purplegattoARB<$100

Bucks

Invested

$10,836.94

Value

$8.8K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

49%

6204-6345 (12549)

Both legs:

Bucks$8,639.3221.7¢$-1.6K

Celtics$1,887.2783.4¢-$119.69

0x3mf379C47E653dafa153841a995Cf975B6a02fxdCTR

Bucks

Invested

$7,569.6

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$247.52

Record

67%

309-151 (460)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$4,773.93

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$44.06

Record

51%

3584-3513 (7097)

Both legs:

Celtics$2,665.4381.5¢+$97.41

Bucks$2,108.515.9¢-$53.35

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Bucks

Invested

$31,961.03

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$141.14

Record

49%

434-452 (886)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Bucks

Invested

$3,874.98

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$129.17

Record

50%

2686-2677 (5363)

Gaditima

Celtics

Invested

$3,252.99

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$99.45

Record

48%

7105-7804 (14909)

NM-PARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$2,605.44

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$35.72

Record

40%

1343-2037 (3380)

Both legs:

Celtics$2,027.581.1¢+$60

Bucks$577.9417.2¢-$24.28

sentrio

Celtics

Invested

$2,346.82

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$63.39

Record

50%

25488-25195 (50683)

Flaznorp

Celtics

Invested

$2,147.81

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$162.26

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

GC-PARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$2,095

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$60

Record

39%

1339-2113 (3452)

Both legs:

Celtics$1,617.580.9¢+$72.5

Bucks$477.515.9¢-$12.5

NOO-YesCTR

Bucks

Invested

$2,019.67

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$67.32

Record

—

2-2 (4)

DolphinBaller

Celtics

Invested

$1,659.99

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$10

Record

45%

109-135 (244)

VeryLucky888CTR

Bucks

Invested

$9,073.29

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$150.5

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

hi774cCTR

Bucks

Invested

$1,067.56

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$35.59

Record

50%

4959-4888 (9847)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Bucks

Invested

$1,030.13

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

71%

7122-2863 (9985)

henryttok

Celtics

Invested

$794.85

Value

$797.09

PnL

+$2.24

Record

—

38791873984189ARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$4,984.42

Value

$460.56

PnL

-$167.87

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

Both legs:

Celtics$301.2581.1¢-$613.33

Bucks$281.9118.1¢+$445.46

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Celtics

Invested

$332

Value

$334

PnL

+$2

Record

51%

1793-1714 (3507)

BoomLaLa

Celtics

Invested

$244.88

Value

$250.88

PnL

+$6.06

Record

54%

11950-10370 (22320)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Bucks

Invested

$370.09

Value

$241.19

PnL

-$128.9

Record

46%

1395-1652 (3047)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

16 of 31 top traders (52%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+23 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

87% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCeltics 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpCeltics 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCeltics 93% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedCeltics 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Celtics 87% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.