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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Bagwell306 | fantasy7788 | HomeRunHazard | lllllllIlll | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 54% (26–22, n=48) | 56% (5–4, n=9) | 54% (233–198, n=431) | 36% (4–7, n=11) |
| Consensus PnL | $8.5K | $421K | $261K | $165K |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #499 | PM monthly #40 | PM monthly #7 | was PM monthly #634 |
| Sides with the consensus | 40% (8 of 20 open) | 0% (0 of 2 open) | 70% (69 of 99 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled | none with 10+ settled |
| none with 10+ settled |
| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 100% of 24 at avg 48¢, ROI +51% | 100% of 5 at avg 50¢, ROI +54% | 100% of 97 at avg 54¢, ROI +46% | 100% of 5 at avg 64¢, ROI +32% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 4% (won 100% of 1) | 20% (won 100% of 1) | 1% (won 100% of 1) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 63% (won 100% of 15) | 20% (won 100% of 1) | 32% (won 100% of 31) | 0% |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 25% (won 100% of 6) | 60% (won 100% of 3) | 57% (won 100% of 55) | 60% (won 100% of 3) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 8% (won 100% of 2) | 0% | 10% (won 100% of 10) | 40% (won 100% of 2) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 8 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Bagwell306 | fantasy7788 | HomeRunHazard | lllllllIlll |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah vs. Golden Knights opposite sides · consensus Golden Knights | Utah $602 | — | Golden Knights $14K | — |
| Vikings vs. Packers opposite sides · consensus Packers | Packers $3.3K | — | Vikings $6.3K | — |
| Spread: Packers (-5.5) opposite sides · consensus Vikings | Packers $2.0K | — | Vikings $5.6K | — |
| Vikings vs. Packers: O/U 42.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Under $2.6K | — | Over $884 | — |
| Seahawks vs. Raiders opposite sides · consensus Seahawks | Raiders $14 | — | Seahawks $1.5K | — |
| Dolphins vs. Colts opposite sides · consensus Colts | Dolphins $34 | — | Colts $1.1K | — |
| USC vs. Indiana: O/U 49.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | Under $5 | — | Over $910 | — |
| Spread: Colts (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Colts | Dolphins $48 | — | Colts $114 | — |
| Northwestern vs. Ohio State: O/U 47.5 same side · consensus Over | Over $411 | — | Over $234 | — |