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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
Aurelius7BreakTheBankndb1
Record (consensus markets)57% (235–175, n=410)45% (547–663, n=1210)66% (876–458, n=1334)
Consensus PnL$3.2K$11.0M$4.1M
Tracked asPM monthly #950PM monthly #1PM monthly #26
Sides with the consensus60% (15 of 25 open)68% (77 of 114 open)72% (28 of 39 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=141, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=280, ROI +38%
Weakest topicCulture −2 pts, n=23—NFL −10 pts, n=132
Settled positions, side won67% of 388 at avg 49¢, ROI +10%97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%
Entries under 30¢16% (won 16% of 64)10% (won 81% of 57)13% (won 16% of 160)
Entries 30–50¢16% (won 40% of 62)36% (won 98% of 201)20% (won 40% of 253)
Entries 50–70¢61% (won 84% of 237)35% (won 99% of 196)24% (won 57% of 310)
Entries 70¢ and up6% (won 96% of 25)19% (won 100% of 109)43% (won 93% of 544)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

12 on the same side, 10 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketAurelius7BreakTheBankndb1
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $77KNo $1.9M
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $1.4KNo $1.4M
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $187KYes $777K
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $265KYes $544K
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $287KNo $61K
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $1.4KNo $120K—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $26No $34K—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $28KNo $831
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $96No $28K—
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $445No $607—
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $183KYes $324K
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
—No $42KNo $94K
Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $79Yes $55K—
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $32KYes $12K
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $100Yes $36K—
Will Republicans win Iowa and Maine, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $43Yes $35K—
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
No $485No $34K—
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
No $194No $22K—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Michigan?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $37Yes $12K—
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
—No $3.5KNo $7.0K
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
—No $157No $4.0K
Will Republicans win Iowa and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $48Yes $44—