Will Republicans win Iowa and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 50%
$1.7K
$372.59
99¢ → 98.9¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 99¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$12.59 | 20% 308-1212 (1520) |
 JSG3CTR | Yesavg 1¢ | $9.18 | $330.53 | +$321.35 | 59% 13-9 (22) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99¢ | $288.59 | $186.6 | -$101.99 | 61% 21044-13396 (34440) |
 LornaPredictsCTR | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $2.77 | $110.64 | +$107.87 | 18% 535-2427 (2962) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $3.96 | $64.36 | +$60.39 | 36% 15393-27456 (42849) |
PO poposub<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $31.93 | $32 | +$0.07 | 45% 2053-2461 (4514) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $7.62 | $4.92 | -$2.7 | 57% 13663-10453 (24116) |
BR BreakTheBankCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $1.49 | $1.68 | +$0.19 | 43% 552-726 (1278) |
IstarothInvested
$1,014
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$12.59
Record
20%
308-1212 (1520)
JSG3CTRInvested
$9.18
Value
$330.53
PnL
+$321.35
Record
59%
13-9 (22)
balthazarInvested
$288.59
Value
$186.6
PnL
-$101.99
Record
61%
21044-13396 (34440)
LornaPredictsCTRInvested
$2.77
Value
$110.64
PnL
+$107.87
Record
18%
535-2427 (2962)
Invested
$3.96
Value
$64.36
PnL
+$60.39
Record
36%
15393-27456 (42849)
Invested
$31.93
Value
$32
PnL
+$0.07
Record
45%
2053-2461 (4514)
Invested
$7.62
Value
$4.92
PnL
-$2.7
Record
57%
13663-10453 (24116)
Invested
$1.49
Value
$1.68
PnL
+$0.19
Record
43%
552-726 (1278)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.