Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Michigan?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 99¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$10.18

Smart Money Entry

99.4¢ → 99.1¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares5,168

Combined PnL-$14.05

Yes4 traders

Total Value$170.85

Total Shares18,200

Combined PnL+$24.23

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 99.4¢	$4.9K	$4.9K	-$13.79	61% 21089-13426 (34515)
PO poposub	Noavg 99.3¢	$266.24	$265.98	-$0.26	45% 2053-2462 (4515)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$163.87	$134.6	+$12.73	52% 1139-1031 (2170)
BR BreakTheBankCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$16.57	$29.83	+$13.26	43% 552-726 (1278)
TR TrueDignityCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$6.3	$6.3	-$1.75	36% 42-75 (117)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.14	$0.13	-$0.01	— 0-3 (3)

balthazar

Invested

$4,871.23

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$13.79

Record

61%

21089-13426 (34515)

poposub

Invested

$266.24

Value

$265.98

PnL

-$0.26

Record

45%

2053-2462 (4515)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$163.87

Value

$134.6

PnL

+$12.73

Record

52%

1139-1031 (2170)

BreakTheBankCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.57

Value

$29.83

PnL

+$13.26

Record

43%

552-726 (1278)

TrueDignityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.3

Value

$6.3

PnL

-$1.75

Record

36%

42-75 (117)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.14

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$0.01

Record

—

0-3 (3)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.