Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$2.0K
$4.22
96.7¢ → 97¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 96.7¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$4 | 56% 15268-11795 (27063) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $42.74 | $42.9 | +$0.17 | 42% 5201-7128 (12329) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $17.14 | $17.19 | +$0.05 | 57% 13340-10198 (23538) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.