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Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
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| 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592 | Bagwell306 | HomeRunHazard | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 60% (61–40, n=101) | 51% (26–25, n=51) | 54% (304–264, n=568) |
| Consensus PnL | $172K | $5.5K | $309K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #62 | was PM monthly #499 | PM monthly #7 |
| Sides with the consensus | no open consensus position | 44% (7 of 16 open) | 77% (50 of 65 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| none with 10+ settled |
|
| Weakest topic | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 100% of 59 at avg 61¢, ROI +41% | 100% of 24 at avg 48¢, ROI +51% | 100% of 97 at avg 54¢, ROI +46% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 3% (won 100% of 2) | 4% (won 100% of 1) | 1% (won 100% of 1) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 10% (won 100% of 6) | 63% (won 100% of 15) | 32% (won 100% of 31) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 63% (won 100% of 37) | 25% (won 100% of 6) | 57% (won 100% of 55) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 24% (won 100% of 14) | 8% (won 100% of 2) | 10% (won 100% of 10) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 7 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592 | Bagwell306 | HomeRunHazard |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings vs. Packers opposite sides · consensus Packers | — | Packers $3.3K | Vikings $6.2K |
| Spread: Packers (-5.5) opposite sides · consensus Vikings | — | Packers $2.1K | Vikings $5.6K |
| Vikings vs. Packers: O/U 42.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | — | Under $2.6K | Over $884 |
| Seahawks vs. Raiders opposite sides · consensus Seahawks | — | Raiders $14 | Seahawks $1.5K |
| Dolphins vs. Colts opposite sides · consensus Colts | — | Dolphins $34 | Colts $1.1K |
| USC vs. Indiana: O/U 49.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | — | Under $5 | Over $910 |
| Spread: Colts (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Colts | — | Dolphins $48 | Colts $115 |
| Northwestern vs. Ohio State: O/U 47.5 same side · consensus Over | — | Over $383 | Over $219 |