Consensus PnL $27K · win rate 56% (273–214, n=487) · was PM monthly #808 · holds 10 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$27.0K
Record
273W / 214L
Win Rate
56.0%
of 487 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1374
Source
PM monthly #808
Trades
1
Markets
500
Volume
$513.3K
Top consensus positions
10 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 10 on the consensus side (60%)- Canadiens vs. StarsStars $643 · now 61¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)Red Wings $576 · now 36¢ · in at 39¢against the consensus (Blackhawks)
- Islanders vs. WildWild $558 · now 65¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Capitals vs. PredatorsPredators $500 · now 51¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (56% of 9)
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 3.5Under $224 · now 56¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (33% of 16)
- Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-10-31?No $196 · now 51¢ · in at 51¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Frosinone Calcio win on 2026-10-29?No $184 · now 25¢ · in at 42¢with the consensus (26% of 33)
- Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 232.5Under $100 · now 49¢ · in at 48¢against the consensus (Over)
Specialties
266 settled consensus markets · held side won 95% at an average entry of 50¢- MLB
+46 pts
side won 96% of 189 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +44%
- NHL
+45 pts
side won 92% of 52 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +43%
- Soccer
+39 pts
side won 100% of 22 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +37%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%(won 100% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 52%(won 95% of 139)
- 50–70¢: 45%(won 96% of 119)
- 70¢ and up: 3%(won 100% of 7)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.