Canadiens vs. Stars
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Stars (80%) · Stars at 60¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Stars
5
Stars 80%
$2.8K
$29.16
58¢ → 59.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralStars at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Starsavg 58¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$11.13 | 54% 16879-14148 (31027) |
PA para-VisionCTR | Canadiensavg 40¢ | $750.11 | $796.99 | +$46.88 | 56% 199-159 (358) |
 cassandra.torchlight | Starsavg 57.9¢ | $620.79 | $616.15 | -$4.64 | 49% 262-269 (531) |
 RollAwayTheDew | Starsavg 58¢ | $234.02 | $232 | -$2.02 | 52% 318-288 (606) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Starsavg 57¢ | $8.71 | $8.79 | +$0.08 | 57% 13182-10034 (23216) |
Invested
$1,186.05
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$11.13
Record
54%
16879-14148 (31027)
Invested
$750.11
Value
$796.99
PnL
+$46.88
Record
56%
199-159 (358)
cassandra.torchlightInvested
$620.79
Value
$616.15
PnL
-$4.64
Record
49%
262-269 (531)
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$234.02
Value
$232
PnL
-$2.02
Record
52%
318-288 (606)
Invested
$8.71
Value
$8.79
PnL
+$0.08
Record
57%
13182-10034 (23216)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.