ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 3.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 57¢ · $12K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 29%
$11.7K
$23.25
57.9¢ → 57.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KY Kyn008 | Underavg 57.8¢ | $10.1K | $10.0K | -$60.58 | 50% 231-233 (464) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 41¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$53.48 | 50% 24686-24362 (49048) |
0X 0x5E5175106a7Dbbd92B10f1b56458Fc8c1Bdd42ce-1730865746538CTR | Overavg 42¢ | $210 | $250 | -$2.5 | 68% 1443-688 (2131) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Overavg 42¢ | $124.32 | $148 | +$23.68 | 50% 6899-6893 (13792) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 41.1¢ | $224.15 | $142.84 | +$6.68 | 58% 41209-29876 (71085) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 62¢ | $35.15 | $35.68 | +$0.53 | 57% 13341-10198 (23539) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 37¢ | $5.58 | $7.54 | +$1.96 | 58% 28254-20837 (49091) |
Invested
$10,093.2
Value
$10.0K
PnL
-$60.58
Record
50%
231-233 (464)
Invested
$1,010.15
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$53.48
Record
50%
24686-24362 (49048)
Invested
$210
Value
$250
PnL
-$2.5
Record
68%
1443-688 (2131)
Invested
$124.32
Value
$148
PnL
+$23.68
Record
50%
6899-6893 (13792)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$224.15
Value
$142.84
PnL
+$6.68
Record
58%
41209-29876 (71085)
Invested
$35.15
Value
$35.68
PnL
+$0.53
Record
57%
13341-10198 (23539)
Invested
$5.58
Value
$7.54
PnL
+$1.96
Record
58%
28254-20837 (49091)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.