Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (51%). 1 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-10-31?
1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (13%) · Yes at 50¢ · $15K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 13%
$15.3K
-$267.72
Research grade
NeutralYes at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 8 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors No 51%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WO wollaoCTR | Yesavg 49.7¢ | $10.0K | $9.7K | -$340.79 | 58% 14-10 (24) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 50.7¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$54.51 | 53% 15742-13912 (29654) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 50.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | +$6.25 | 58% 40796-29505 (70301) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 51¢ | $404.88 | $412.82 | +$7.94 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
 cassandra.torchlight | Noavg 51¢ | $200 | $203.92 | +$3.92 | 49% 262-269 (531) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | Noavg 50.5¢ | $21.33 | $21.96 | +$0.64 | 63% 1083-626 (1709) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $19.89 | $19.7 | -$0.2 | 54% 2922-2511 (5433) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $11.44 | $11.44 | +$0 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
Invested
$10,000
Value
$9.7K
PnL
-$340.79
Record
58%
14-10 (24)
Invested
$3,479.16
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$54.51
Record
53%
15742-13912 (29654)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,531.5
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$6.25
Record
58%
40796-29505 (70301)
Invested
$404.88
Value
$412.82
PnL
+$7.94
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
cassandra.torchlightInvested
$200
Value
$203.92
PnL
+$3.92
Record
49%
262-269 (531)
Invested
$21.33
Value
$21.96
PnL
+$0.64
Record
63%
1083-626 (1709)
Invested
$19.89
Value
$19.7
PnL
-$0.2
Record
54%
2922-2511 (5433)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$11.44
Value
$11.44
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.