Capitals vs. Predators
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Capitals (40%) · Capitals at 51¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Capitals
5
Capitals 40%
$5.7K
$4.98
50.9¢ → 50.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralCapitals at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 yabanci | Capitalsavg 50.9¢ | $4.0K | $4.0K | +$4.01 | 57% 48-36 (84) |
CO cocococococoCTR | Predatorsavg 49.3¢ | $821.89 | $816.34 | -$5.55 | 52% 1646-1522 (3168) |
 cassandra.torchlightCTR | Predatorsavg 49¢ | $490 | $490 | +$0 | 50% 264-269 (533) |
RO roldy | Capitalsavg 50¢ | $328.67 | $335.24 | +$6.57 | 55% 1407-1171 (2578) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Predatorsavg 50¢ | $2.49 | $2.44 | -$0.05 | 49% 18690-19120 (37810) |
yabanciInvested
$4,033.36
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$4.01
Record
57%
48-36 (84)
Invested
$821.89
Value
$816.34
PnL
-$5.55
Record
52%
1646-1522 (3168)
cassandra.torchlightCTRInvested
$490
Value
$490
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
264-269 (533)
Invested
$328.67
Value
$335.24
PnL
+$6.57
Record
55%
1407-1171 (2578)
Invested
$2.49
Value
$2.44
PnL
-$0.05
Record
49%
18690-19120 (37810)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.