Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 232.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 56¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 30

Over56¢Under44¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$55.34

Smart Money Entry

54.5¢ → 55.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,412

Combined PnL-$153.1

Under2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,155

Combined PnL+$97.76

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 54¢	$943.21	$873.38	-$69.83	54% 16927-14186 (31113)
0X 0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494	Overavg 55¢	$694.78	$631.62	-$63.16	54% 1257-1064 (2321)
TA takeormakeCTR	Underavg 45¢	$519.84	$577.6	+$57.76	54% 3863-3352 (7215)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Underavg 46¢	$460	$500	+$40	53% 5532-4882 (10414)
BU BullishBarb	Overavg 55¢	$221.21	$201.1	-$20.11	42% 3463-4692 (8155)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$943.21

Value

$873.38

PnL

-$69.83

Record

54%

16927-14186 (31113)

0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494

Over

Invested

$694.78

Value

$631.62

PnL

-$63.16

Record

54%

1257-1064 (2321)

takeormakeCTR

Under

Invested

$519.84

Value

$577.6

PnL

+$57.76

Record

54%

3863-3352 (7215)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Under

Invested

$460

Value

$500

PnL

+$40

Record

53%

5532-4882 (10414)

BullishBarb

Over

Invested

$221.21

Value

$201.1

PnL

-$20.11

Record

42%

3463-4692 (8155)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.