Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Blackhawks (67%) · Blackhawks at 65¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Blackhawks
6
Blackhawks 67%
$5.0K
-$160.2
63.9¢ → 64.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralBlackhawks at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-4 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Blackhawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA taylorsversion | Blackhawksavg 64¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | +$21.6 | 54% 122-105 (227) |
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR | Red Wingsavg 38.9¢ | $1.7K | $1.6K | -$128.98 | 54% 2298-1976 (4274) |
 fyrskenCTR | Red Wingsavg 39¢ | $624 | $576 | -$56 | 50% 273-275 (548) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Blackhawksavg 61¢ | $38.99 | $40.04 | +$1.05 | 58% 28255-20837 (49092) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Blackhawksavg 60¢ | $32.62 | $21.04 | +$1.47 | 55% 6994-5612 (12606) |
RO roldy<$100 | Blackhawksavg 62¢ | $16.32 | $16.84 | +$0.66 | 55% 1410-1176 (2586) |
Invested
$2,764.28
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$21.6
Record
54%
122-105 (227)
Invested
$1,712.26
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$128.98
Record
54%
2298-1976 (4274)
fyrskenCTRInvested
$624
Value
$576
PnL
-$56
Record
50%
273-275 (548)
Invested
$38.99
Value
$40.04
PnL
+$1.05
Record
58%
28255-20837 (49092)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$32.62
Value
$21.04
PnL
+$1.47
Record
55%
6994-5612 (12606)
Invested
$16.32
Value
$16.84
PnL
+$0.66
Record
55%
1410-1176 (2586)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.