Will Frosinone Calcio win on 2026-10-29?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 59¢ · $857 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 33%
$857.4
$15.32
58¢ → 58.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 fraj0la | Yesavg 58¢ | $588.25 | $593.32 | +$5.07 | 63% 226-130 (356) |
 cassandra.torchlightCTR | Noavg 42¢ | $167.99 | $175.99 | +$8 | 49% 255-263 (518) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $41.99 | $43.55 | +$1.74 | 53% 15682-13855 (29537) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 57¢ | $26.22 | $25.76 | -$0.46 | 54% 2551-2184 (4735) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $15.54 | $16.28 | +$0.74 | 58% 27868-20501 (48369) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $8.92 | $2.5 | +$0.23 | 58% 40372-29160 (69532) |
fraj0laInvested
$588.25
Value
$593.32
PnL
+$5.07
Record
63%
226-130 (356)
cassandra.torchlightCTRInvested
$167.99
Value
$175.99
PnL
+$8
Record
49%
255-263 (518)
Invested
$41.99
Value
$43.55
PnL
+$1.74
Record
53%
15682-13855 (29537)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$26.22
Value
$25.76
PnL
-$0.46
Record
54%
2551-2184 (4735)
Invested
$15.54
Value
$16.28
PnL
+$0.74
Record
58%
27868-20501 (48369)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$8.92
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0.23
Record
58%
40372-29160 (69532)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.