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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
trabaRN1BreakTheBank
Record (consensus markets)48% (16–17, n=33)48% (11934–12756, n=24690)45% (502–616, n=1118)
Consensus PnL-$2.7K$13.4M$11.1M
Tracked asPM monthly #814PM monthly #17 + pinnedPM monthly #1
Sides with the consensus60% (3 of 5 open)58% (54 of 93 open)67% (39 of 58 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
  • NFL +51 pts n=121, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=72, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +41 pts n=276, ROI +38%
Weakest topic———
Settled positions, side won—94% of 23969 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%97% of 515 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%
Entries under 30¢—10% (won 56% of 2478)10% (won 85% of 53)
Entries 30–50¢—22% (won 94% of 5361)35% (won 98% of 181)
Entries 50–70¢—36% (won 99% of 8705)34% (won 99% of 176)
Entries 70¢ and up—31% (won 100% of 7425)20% (won 100% of 105)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

2 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarkettrabaRN1BreakTheBank
Warriors vs. Timberwolves
opposite sides · consensus Timberwolves
Timberwolves $1.5K—Warriors $103K
Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)
opposite sides · consensus Timberwolves
—Timberwolves $253Warriors $62K
Spread: Pistons (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus Hornets
—Pistons $117Hornets $1.5K
Spread: Thunder (-5.5)
same side · consensus Thunder
—Mavericks $405Mavericks $36K
Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)
same side · consensus Nuggets
Nuggets $1.6KNuggets $677—