Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Nuggets, while the market favors Pelicans (51%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (50%) · Nuggets at 50¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Nuggets
6
Nuggets 50%
$8.2K
-$5.99
50.9¢ → 49.5¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNuggets at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Pelicans 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ComingBackCTR | Nuggetsavg 51¢ | $4.7K | $4.7K | -$0 | 61% 3850-2418 (6268) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Pelicansavg 49¢ | $3.1K | $3.1K | +$0 | 54% 16871-14147 (31018) |
 RN1CTR | Nuggetsavg 50¢ | $250 | $247.5 | -$2.5 | 54% 55737-47824 (103561) |
RJ RJW1 | Pelicansavg 50¢ | $110 | $107.8 | -$2.2 | 42% 94-130 (224) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Nuggetsavg 50.8¢ | $53.85 | $52.46 | -$1.39 | 50% 6813-6827 (13640) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Pelicansavg 48¢ | $9.6 | $9.7 | +$0.1 | 56% 6915-5530 (12445) |
ComingBackCTRInvested
$4,727.17
Value
$4.7K
PnL
-$0
Record
61%
3850-2418 (6268)
Invested
$3,085.45
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
16871-14147 (31018)
RN1CTRInvested
$250
Value
$247.5
PnL
-$2.5
Record
54%
55737-47824 (103561)
Invested
$110
Value
$107.8
PnL
-$2.2
Record
42%
94-130 (224)
Invested
$53.85
Value
$52.46
PnL
-$1.39
Record
50%
6813-6827 (13640)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$9.6
Value
$9.7
PnL
+$0.1
Record
56%
6915-5530 (12445)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.