Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Mavericks, while the market favors Thunder (52%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Thunder (-5.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (75%) · Mavericks at 49¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Mavericks
4
Mavericks 75%
$1.5K
$15.53
48¢ → 48.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidMavericks at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Thunder 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ComingBackCTR | Mavericksavg 48¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$13.95 | 61% 3850-2418 (6268) |
 RollAwayTheDew<$100 | Thunderavg 52¢ | $76.14 | $78.33 | +$2.2 | 52% 318-288 (606) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Mavericksavg 48¢ | $11.52 | $11.16 | -$0.36 | 50% 6813-6827 (13640) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Mavericksavg 48¢ | $8.16 | $7.91 | -$0.25 | 58% 28123-20732 (48855) |
ComingBackCTRInvested
$1,339.53
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$13.95
Record
61%
3850-2418 (6268)
RollAwayTheDew<$100Invested
$76.14
Value
$78.33
PnL
+$2.2
Record
52%
318-288 (606)
Invested
$11.52
Value
$11.16
PnL
-$0.36
Record
50%
6813-6827 (13640)
Invested
$8.16
Value
$7.91
PnL
-$0.25
Record
58%
28123-20732 (48855)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.