Warriors vs. Timberwolves

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (78%) · Timberwolves at 59¢ · $17K held · ends Oct 29

Warriors42¢Timberwolves58¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Timberwolves

Consensus Traders

Timberwolves 78%

Total Value

$16.7K

Combined PnL

$755.27

Smart Money Entry

66.5¢ → 58.5¢

-12% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Warriors42%

Timberwolves59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timberwolves7 traders

Total Value$11.6K

Total Shares15,799

Combined PnL+$822.91

Warriors2 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares12,612

Combined PnL-$67.64

Timberwolves — 78%Warriors — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HI hi774c	Timberwolvesavg 67¢	$6.7K	$7.2K	+$550	52% 4642-4348 (8990)
SA SadSquid54333CTR	Warriorsavg 41¢	$5.1K	$5.1K	-$62.77	61% 161-102 (263)
RollAwayTheDew	Timberwolvesavg 67¢	$2.7K	$2.9K	+$221.51	53% 301-270 (571)
PU purplegatto	Timberwolvesavg 65.7¢	$1.3K	$1.0K	+$42.87	50% 5748-5850 (11598)
OM omnibus-076daa	Timberwolvesavg 56.7¢	$271.99	$280.75	+$8.76	49% 18462-18884 (37346)
HRTrading<$100	Timberwolvesavg 62.8¢	$48.98	$46.41	-$2.57	54% 2678-2303 (4981)
poshposh<$100	Timberwolvesavg 68¢	$40.22	$42.88	+$2.66	60% 9159-6104 (15263)
DO DolphinBaller<$100	Timberwolvesavg 57¢	$36.39	$36.08	-$0.32	49% 85-88 (173)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Warriorsavg 36¢	$20.61	$15.74	-$4.87	65% 1650-894 (2544)

hi774c

Timberwolves

Invested

$6,699.99

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$550

Record

52%

4642-4348 (8990)

SadSquid54333CTR

Warriors

Invested

$5,147.3

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$62.77

Record

61%

161-102 (263)

RollAwayTheDew

Timberwolves

Invested

$2,706.23

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$221.51

Record

53%

301-270 (571)

purplegatto

Timberwolves

Invested

$1,323.71

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$42.87

Record

50%

5748-5850 (11598)

omnibus-076daa

Timberwolves

Invested

$271.99

Value

$280.75

PnL

+$8.76

Record

49%

18462-18884 (37346)

HRTrading<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$48.98

Value

$46.41

PnL

-$2.57

Record

54%

2678-2303 (4981)

poshposh<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$40.22

Value

$42.88

PnL

+$2.66

Record

60%

9159-6104 (15263)

DolphinBaller<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$36.39

Value

$36.08

PnL

-$0.32

Record

49%

85-88 (173)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$20.61

Value

$15.74

PnL

-$4.87

Record

65%

1650-894 (2544)

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Timberwolves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.