Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Timberwolves, while the market favors Warriors (53%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (80%) · Timberwolves at 47¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Timberwolves
5
Timberwolves 80%
$2.0K
$53.46
46.1¢ → 47¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidTimberwolves at 47%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Warriors 53%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Timberwolvesavg 44.2¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$110.41 | 54% 16863-14141 (31004) |
HI hi774cCTR | Timberwolvesavg 51¢ | $448.41 | $430.82 | -$17.58 | 52% 4656-4364 (9020) |
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF | Warriorsavg 56¢ | $464.8 | $423.3 | -$41.5 | 54% 375-322 (697) |
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100 | Timberwolvesavg 46¢ | $30.45 | $32.44 | +$1.99 | 62% 4022-2462 (6484) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Timberwolvesavg 45¢ | $1.64 | $1.78 | +$0.15 | 58% 28120-20725 (48845) |
Invested
$1,009.48
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$110.41
Record
54%
16863-14141 (31004)
Invested
$448.41
Value
$430.82
PnL
-$17.58
Record
52%
4656-4364 (9020)
Invested
$464.8
Value
$423.3
PnL
-$41.5
Record
54%
375-322 (697)
Invested
$30.45
Value
$32.44
PnL
+$1.99
Record
62%
4022-2462 (6484)
Invested
$1.64
Value
$1.78
PnL
+$0.15
Record
58%
28120-20725 (48845)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.