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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
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| ndb1 | RN1 | TheWindKnowsmyName | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 65% (888–469, n=1357) | 47% (13363–14875, n=28238) | 70% (166–72, n=238) |
| Consensus PnL | $4.2M | $14.8M | -$96K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #148 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #953 |
| Sides with the consensus | 74% (34 of 46 open) | 66% (125 of 189 open) | 56% (139 of 247 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | NFL −9 pts, n=139 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 64% of 1288 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 94% of 25370 at avg 59¢, ROI +35% | 94% of 127 at avg 68¢, ROI +28% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 13% (won 15% of 168) | 10% (won 57% of 2538) | 9% (won 64% of 11) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 20% (won 39% of 256) | 22% (won 94% of 5565) | 17% (won 95% of 21) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 24% (won 58% of 314) | 36% (won 99% of 9017) | 14% (won 94% of 18) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 43% (won 93% of 550) | 33% (won 100% of 8250) | 61% (won 99% of 77) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | ndb1 | RN1 | TheWindKnowsmyName |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2028 elections? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $54 | — | No $205 |