Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2028 elections?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 77¢ · $856 held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$856.19

Combined PnL

$0.36

Smart Money Entry

73¢ → 76.5¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$369.47

Total Shares480

Combined PnL+$18.64

Yes3 traders

Total Value$137.9

Total Shares596

Combined PnL-$18.29

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 70.7¢	$308.59	$299.61	-$6.11	14% 461-2758 (3219)
└ No leg	Noavg 70.7¢	$211.84	$230.7	+$18.87
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 31.3¢	$93.86	$68.91	-$24.98
TH TheWindKnowsmyName	Noavg 70.8¢	$188.5	$204.89	+$16.39	51% 258-247 (505)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 75¢	$95.25	$97.79	+$2.54	77% 12539-3686 (16225)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 77¢	$65.45	$65.03	-$0.42	43% 3133-4188 (7321)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Yesavg 30.6¢	$76.5	$57.5	-$19	50% 99-98 (197)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Yesavg 25.8¢	$93.09	$49.21	-$1.74	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.8¢	$32.7	$29.21	-$3.49
└ No leg	Noavg 70.2¢	$18.24	$20	+$1.76
ND ndb1CTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$46.85	$46.85	-$0	66% 940-495 (1435)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$32.84	$33.55	+$0.71	56% 15850-12549 (28399)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 71¢	$1.63	$1.77	+$0.14	50% 659-658 (1317)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$308.59

Value

$299.61

PnL

-$6.11

Record

14%

461-2758 (3219)

Both legs:

No$211.8470.7¢+$18.87

Yes$93.8631.3¢-$24.98

TheWindKnowsmyName

Invested

$188.5

Value

$204.89

PnL

+$16.39

Record

51%

258-247 (505)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$95.25

Value

$97.79

PnL

+$2.54

Record

77%

12539-3686 (16225)

merod<$100

Invested

$65.45

Value

$65.03

PnL

-$0.42

Record

43%

3133-4188 (7321)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.5

Value

$57.5

PnL

-$19

Record

50%

99-98 (197)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$93.09

Value

$49.21

PnL

-$1.74

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

Both legs:

Invested

$46.85

Value

$46.85

PnL

-$0

Record

66%

940-495 (1435)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.84

Value

$33.55

PnL

+$0.71

Record

56%

15850-12549 (28399)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$1.63

Value

$1.77

PnL

+$0.14

Record

50%

659-658 (1317)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.2%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.