← Traders
Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| ndb1 | primm | RN1 | TheWindKnowsmyName | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 65% (892–472, n=1364) | 50% (1082–1097, n=2179) | 47% (13369–14864, n=28233) | 70% (176–76, n=252) |
| Consensus PnL | $4.6M | $3.6M | $14.8M | -$96K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #99 | PM monthly #50 | PM monthly #28 + pinned | was PM monthly #953 |
| Sides with the consensus | 78% (39 of 50 open) | 100% (7 of 7 open) | 56% (76 of 136 open) | 57% (154 of 271 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
|
| |
| Weakest topic | NFL −9 pts, n=139 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 64% of 1288 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 99% of 987 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% | 94% of 25370 at avg 59¢, ROI +35% | 88% of 177 at avg 68¢, ROI +27% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 13% (won 15% of 168) | 5% (won 94% of 51) | 10% (won 57% of 2538) | 12% (won 33% of 21) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 20% (won 39% of 256) | 41% (won 99% of 405) | 22% (won 94% of 5565) | 14% (won 84% of 25) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 24% (won 58% of 314) | 49% (won 99% of 485) | 36% (won 99% of 9017) | 12% (won 90% of 21) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 43% (won 93% of 550) | 5% (won 100% of 46) | 33% (won 100% of 8250) | 62% (won 99% of 110) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | ndb1 | primm | RN1 | TheWindKnowsmyName |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Central Michigan (-16.5) opposite sides · consensus Central Michigan | — | Central Michigan $4.2K | Eastern Michigan $2.0K | — |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2028 elections? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $53 | — | — | No $180 |
| Spread: Eastern Michigan (-1.5) opposite sides · consensus Eastern Michigan | — | Eastern Michigan $161 | Central Michigan $50 | — |
| Spread: Central Michigan (-13.5) opposite sides · consensus Central Michigan | — | Central Michigan $6 | Eastern Michigan $4 | — |
| Spread: Central Michigan (-14.5) same side · consensus Central Michigan | — | Central Michigan $4.9K | Central Michigan $3.3K | — |