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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| dotethguy | LuckyWin | BreakTheBank | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | no settled market | 88% (693–98, n=791) | 67% (469–231, n=700) | 49% (9610–10110, n=19720) |
| Consensus PnL | — | $29K | $10.2M | $13.3M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #615 | was PM monthly #579 | PM monthly #1 | Hand-picked |
| Sides with the consensus | no open consensus position | 80% (4 of 5 open) | 76% (53 of 70 open) | 53% (17 of 32 open) |
| Strongest topics | not computed yet |
|
| |
| Weakest topic | — | NBA −7 pts, n=48 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | — | 88% of 738 at avg 88¢, ROI 0% | 97% of 471 at avg 53¢, ROI +40% | 93% of 20810 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | — | 7% (won 8% of 48) | 11% (won 87% of 52) | 10% (won 53% of 2181) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | — | 4% (won 44% of 32) | 34% (won 98% of 162) | 22% (won 94% of 4645) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | — | 7% (won 56% of 48) | 33% (won 99% of 154) | 37% (won 99% of 7657) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | — | 83% (won 99% of 610) | 22% (won 100% of 103) | 30% (won 100% of 6327) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 8 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | dotethguy | LuckyWin | BreakTheBank | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5) opposite sides · consensus Grizzlies | — | — | Grizzlies $420K | Kings $220 |
| Chiefs vs. Seahawks opposite sides · consensus Seahawks | — | — | Chiefs $280K | Seahawks $28K |
| Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Grizzlies | — | — | Grizzlies $121K | Kings $272 |
| Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5) opposite sides · consensus Grizzlies | — | — | Grizzlies $47K | Kings $190 |
| Spread: Chiefs (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Seahawks | — | — | Chiefs $40K | Seahawks $5.5K |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | — | Yes $2 | No $36K | — |
| Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Grizzlies | — | — | Grizzlies $24K | Kings $73 |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | — | Yes $1 | No $20K | — |
| Spread: Seahawks (-2.5) same side · consensus Chiefs | — | — | Chiefs $78K | Chiefs $5.9K |