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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
denizze46m3RememberAmalekRUDY2323
Record (consensus markets)57% (34–26, n=60)17% (155–762, n=917)70% (143–62, n=205)no settled market
Consensus PnL$1.1M$536K$494K—
Tracked asPM monthly #162PM monthly #2PM monthly #149PM monthly #967
Sides with the consensus85% (23 of 27 open)74% (319 of 434 open)54% (83 of 154 open)80% (4 of 5 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yetnot computed yetnot computed yet
Weakest topic—Tech ±0 pts, n=36——
Settled positions, side won—93% of 626 at avg 90¢, ROI +2%——
Entries under 30¢—7% (won 11% of 46)——
Entries 30–50¢—1% (won 86% of 7)——
Entries 50–70¢—1% (won 75% of 8)——
Entries 70¢ and up—90% (won 100% of 565)——

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

19 on the same side, 12 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Marketdenizze46m3RememberAmalekRUDY2323
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $32KYes $87No $6—
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $40K—Yes $549—
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $5No $15K—
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $12K—Yes $115—
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $7.5KYes $59——
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
——No $18Yes $5.7K
Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $7Yes $3.4K—
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $9No $3.1K—
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $5Yes $1.1K—
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $421No $242—
Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $70Yes $85—
Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $30No $110—
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $10K—Yes $1.6K—
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $6Yes $7.5K—
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
same side · consensus No
No $1.7K—No $4.8K—
Iran leadership change by December 31?
same side · consensus No
No $5.1K—No $1.1K—
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $94Yes $5.0K—
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $25Yes $4.0K—
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $20Yes $2.6K—
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
same side · consensus No
Yes $1.2KYes $6——
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 3%-6%?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $249Yes $829—
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $10Yes $189—
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $4Yes $124—
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 0%-3%?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $26Yes $89—
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $4Yes $77—
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $45Yes $5——
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 12% or more?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $14Yes $13—
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $15Yes $5—
Will Atiku Abubakar win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $7Yes $10—
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 6%-9%?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $7Yes $10—
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $5Yes $2—