Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 45¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8

Yes56¢No44¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$92.42

Smart Money Entry

49.1¢ → 44.5¢

-9% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$573.32

Total Shares956

Combined PnL+$88.22

Yes1 trader

Total Value$48.6

Total Shares90

Combined PnL+$4.2

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 53.9¢	$883.85	$481.68	-$24.68	36% 15264-27350 (42614)
└ No leg	Noavg 53.9¢	$279.81	$264.94	-$26.78
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 49.1¢	$217.32	$216.73	+$2.1
BI BiggggggggCTR	Noavg 55.5¢	$277.47	$300	+$22.53	45% 2762-3312 (6074)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Noavg 40¢	$166.21	$237.32	+$63.29	53% 1128-1012 (2140)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 49.3¢	$44.4	$48.6	+$4.2	53% 6464-5663 (12127)
YO YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100	Noavg 56¢	$33.6	$36	+$2.4	53% 3699-3216 (6915)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$883.85

Value

$481.68

PnL

-$24.68

Record

36%

15264-27350 (42614)

Both legs:

No$279.8153.9¢-$26.78

Yes$217.3249.1¢+$2.1

BiggggggggCTR

Invested

$277.47

Value

$300

PnL

+$22.53

Record

45%

2762-3312 (6074)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Invested

$166.21

Value

$237.32

PnL

+$63.29

Record

53%

1128-1012 (2140)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.4

Value

$48.6

PnL

+$4.2

Record

53%

6464-5663 (12127)

YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100

Invested

$33.6

Value

$36

PnL

+$2.4

Record

53%

3699-3216 (6915)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 45%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.5%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$115.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

215.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.