Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 6%-9%?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $489 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$489.4
-$19.93
96¢ → 98.7¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-23 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Mature
25h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SM smallreceipt | Noavg 99.5¢ | $233.76 | $232.06 | -$1.69 | 49% 8939-9446 (18385) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $139.32 | $142.34 | +$3.02 | 40% 300-442 (742) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 91.7¢ | $143.62 | $82.55 | -$11.06 | 35% 18692-34699 (53391) |
 thanksforplayin<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $20.19 | $26.95 | +$6.82 | 56% 606-468 (1074) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yes | $3.28 | $3.28 | -$17.41 | 72% 14121-5435 (19556) |
 RememberAmalekCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $1.81 | $2.2 | +$0.39 | 56% 1030-817 (1847) |
Invested
$233.76
Value
$232.06
PnL
-$1.69
Record
49%
8939-9446 (18385)
Invested
$139.32
Value
$142.34
PnL
+$3.02
Record
40%
300-442 (742)
Invested
$143.62
Value
$82.55
PnL
-$11.06
Record
35%
18692-34699 (53391)
thanksforplayin<$100Invested
$20.19
Value
$26.95
PnL
+$6.82
Record
56%
606-468 (1074)
Invested
$3.28
Value
$3.28
PnL
-$17.41
Record
72%
14121-5435 (19556)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100Invested
$1.81
Value
$2.2
PnL
+$0.39
Record
56%
1030-817 (1847)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.