Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 99¢ · $264 held · ends Jan 28, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$263.89
-$36.36
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
678h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $178.05 | $248.75 | +$1.21 | 46% 7951-9381 (17332) |
 DonkovCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $14.94 | $13.14 | -$1.8 | 71% 968-396 (1364) |
 RememberAmalekCTR<$100 | Yes | $1 | $1 | -$35.45 | 56% 957-758 (1715) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $1.05 | $0.74 | -$0.3 | 42% 147-201 (348) |
FO forgetfuldoryCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $0.28 | $0.25 | -$0.02 | — 5-5 (10) |
Invested
$178.05
Value
$248.75
PnL
+$1.21
Record
46%
7951-9381 (17332)
DonkovCTR<$100Invested
$14.94
Value
$13.14
PnL
-$1.8
Record
71%
968-396 (1364)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100Invested
$1
Value
$1
PnL
-$35.45
Record
56%
957-758 (1715)
Invested
$1.05
Value
$0.74
PnL
-$0.3
Record
42%
147-201 (348)
Invested
$0.28
Value
$0.25
PnL
-$0.02
Record
—
5-5 (10)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.