Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (53%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 48¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8

Yes48¢No52¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$355.83

Smart Money Entry

39.8¢ → 47.5¢

+19% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes48%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$950.44

Total Shares1,625

Combined PnL+$319.69

No4 traders

Total Value$501.62

Total Shares1,058

Combined PnL+$36.14

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 40.3¢	$609.9	$884.66	+$289.89	53% 1106-988 (2094)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 44.9¢	$266.58	$308.89	+$42.31	53% 6381-5587 (11968)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 52.9¢	$142.5	$140.73	-$1.78	36% 14999-27063 (42062)
NadmiCTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$35.98	$65.78	+$29.8	47% 2032-2248 (4280)
LI Likaseent<$100	Noavg 45¢	$28.2	$26	-$2.19	28% 193-489 (682)
VA Vale54holi<$100	Noavg 45¢	$28.2	$26	-$2.19	28% 168-429 (597)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$609.9

Value

$884.66

PnL

+$289.89

Record

53%

1106-988 (2094)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$266.58

Value

$308.89

PnL

+$42.31

Record

53%

6381-5587 (11968)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$142.5

Value

$140.73

PnL

-$1.78

Record

36%

14999-27063 (42062)

NadmiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.98

Value

$65.78

PnL

+$29.8

Record

47%

2032-2248 (4280)

Likaseent<$100

Invested

$28.2

Value

$26

PnL

-$2.19

Record

28%

193-489 (682)

Vale54holi<$100

Invested

$28.2

Value

$26

PnL

-$2.19

Record

28%

168-429 (597)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 48%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.5%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$102.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

202.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.